PTR - Petroneft Resources
Posted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 1:33 am
we know PTR is a bit slow in achieving their bopd target, and still only produce 2800 bopd. but even with 2800bopd, we should be able to pay of all debt and after 2015, will be debt free and total revenue till 2020 after oil tax, opex and debt will be around USD 104m which is several multiple of current market cap of PTR of USD 34m
if we are producing 4000bopd, we would be generating total revenue of USD 170m after paying debts.
should we able to increase bopd, cash revenue will be much higher than that. see rough calculation below on revenue. its only rough and i have tried to make it as accurate as possible. if not correct, please let me know. also, below only revenue, so still have to take into account overhead.
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referring to their sept 2012 presentation (http://petroneft.com/upload/iblock/477/ ... 2e7778.pdf) :
first 2000bopd:
revenue per day after oil tax and opex = 16.74x 2000 = 33,480
next 800bopd:
revenue per day after oil tax and opex = 23.24x 800 = 18,592
total revenue for the first 2800 per day = 33480+18592=USD52,072
so, per mth = 52072x30=USD1.562160 million
so per year = revenue after oil tax and opex = 1.562x12 =USD 18.744m
recent placing in oct 2012 at 5p, have partly used to pay of debt. so as far as i am aware, current debts are:
http://petroneft.com/news/2012/1060/
Macquirie debt = 9.1m+12.4m = 21.5m
arawak debt = 15m
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macquire 9.1m debt = the 9.1m is payable in total over 14 installment (ie 650k per mth from march 2013 till april 2014= which can easily be paid as our current 2800bopd does generate 1.56m)
so, every mth, with 2800bopd, we generate 1.56m revenue less macquire debt mthly installment of 0.65m = 1.56-0.65=0.91m cash (ie USD 10.92m per year)
ok, we know wells have been producing since 2011 and cash have been generated since then. however, for simplicity, say on average producing 2800bopd since dec 2012.
so, from dec 2012 to may 2014 (ie 18mths), revenue after oil tax, opex = 1.56mx18mths = 28.08m
less 9.1m total of mthly installment = 28.08-9.1m = 18.98m
ie revenue after oil tax, opex and debt monthly installments = USD 18.98m
so, 18.98m will be more than enough to pay the future remaining macquire debt of 12.4m due in May 2014.
so, after paying macquire debts, in May 2014, we still have cash of 18.98-12.4 = usd 6.58m
then, from June 2014 till may 2015 (12 mths) = PTR will be generating revenue after oil tax and opex sum for those 12 mths = 1.56mx12 = 18.72m
so, by May 2015, we will have cash of 6.58m+18.72= 25.3m
in may 2015, final debt (arawak debt of 15m will fall due), so after paying this last debt, we will have 25.3-15 = USD 10.3m
AND FROM June 2015, PTR will be debt free and every month with 2800bopd, PTR will be generating 1.56m revenue after oil tax and opex
ie, per year = 1.56x12 = USD 18.7m
if we are producing at least another 5 years from june 2015, so, total cash will be 18.7x5 + 10.3m (10.3 being net revenue till May 2015) = USD 104m revenue after oil tax, opex and paying all debts
---------------------------
note:
the higher oil price, the higher revenue will be generated. the above calculation based on $105 per barrel (and domestic price of 45% of export price)
assume production constant at 2800bopd.
for additional 100bopd (after 2800bopd), PTR will generate revenue after oil tax, opex and debt, PER YEAR = 23.24x 100 x 360 days = USD 0.84m
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scenario 1:
if PTR able to increase production to 3000bopd from Dec 2013 till May 2015, after paying all debts, PTR will have generated revenue of 10.3m+(0.84x2x1.5 year) = USD 12.8m
then, from June 2015, revenue will be = 18.7m+(0.84x2)= USD 20.4m per year
if wells are producing at least another 5 years from june 2015, so, total cash will be 20.4x5 + 12.8m (12.8 being net revenue till May 2015) = USD 115m revenue after oil tax, opex and paying all debts
scenario 2:
if PTR able to increase production to 4000bopd from Dec 2013 till May 2015, after paying all debts, PTR will have generated revenue of 10.3+(0.84x12x1.5 year) = USD 25.4m
then, from June 2015, revenue will be = 18.7m+(0.84x12)= USD 28.8m per year
if wells are producing at least another 5 years from june 2015, so, total cash will be 28.8x5 + 25.4m (25.4 being net revenue till May 2015) = USD 170m revenue after oil tax, opex and paying all debts
if we are producing 4000bopd, we would be generating total revenue of USD 170m after paying debts.
should we able to increase bopd, cash revenue will be much higher than that. see rough calculation below on revenue. its only rough and i have tried to make it as accurate as possible. if not correct, please let me know. also, below only revenue, so still have to take into account overhead.
------------------------
referring to their sept 2012 presentation (http://petroneft.com/upload/iblock/477/ ... 2e7778.pdf) :
first 2000bopd:
revenue per day after oil tax and opex = 16.74x 2000 = 33,480
next 800bopd:
revenue per day after oil tax and opex = 23.24x 800 = 18,592
total revenue for the first 2800 per day = 33480+18592=USD52,072
so, per mth = 52072x30=USD1.562160 million
so per year = revenue after oil tax and opex = 1.562x12 =USD 18.744m
recent placing in oct 2012 at 5p, have partly used to pay of debt. so as far as i am aware, current debts are:
http://petroneft.com/news/2012/1060/
Macquirie debt = 9.1m+12.4m = 21.5m
arawak debt = 15m
---------------------------
macquire 9.1m debt = the 9.1m is payable in total over 14 installment (ie 650k per mth from march 2013 till april 2014= which can easily be paid as our current 2800bopd does generate 1.56m)
so, every mth, with 2800bopd, we generate 1.56m revenue less macquire debt mthly installment of 0.65m = 1.56-0.65=0.91m cash (ie USD 10.92m per year)
ok, we know wells have been producing since 2011 and cash have been generated since then. however, for simplicity, say on average producing 2800bopd since dec 2012.
so, from dec 2012 to may 2014 (ie 18mths), revenue after oil tax, opex = 1.56mx18mths = 28.08m
less 9.1m total of mthly installment = 28.08-9.1m = 18.98m
ie revenue after oil tax, opex and debt monthly installments = USD 18.98m
so, 18.98m will be more than enough to pay the future remaining macquire debt of 12.4m due in May 2014.
so, after paying macquire debts, in May 2014, we still have cash of 18.98-12.4 = usd 6.58m
then, from June 2014 till may 2015 (12 mths) = PTR will be generating revenue after oil tax and opex sum for those 12 mths = 1.56mx12 = 18.72m
so, by May 2015, we will have cash of 6.58m+18.72= 25.3m
in may 2015, final debt (arawak debt of 15m will fall due), so after paying this last debt, we will have 25.3-15 = USD 10.3m
AND FROM June 2015, PTR will be debt free and every month with 2800bopd, PTR will be generating 1.56m revenue after oil tax and opex
ie, per year = 1.56x12 = USD 18.7m
if we are producing at least another 5 years from june 2015, so, total cash will be 18.7x5 + 10.3m (10.3 being net revenue till May 2015) = USD 104m revenue after oil tax, opex and paying all debts
---------------------------
note:
the higher oil price, the higher revenue will be generated. the above calculation based on $105 per barrel (and domestic price of 45% of export price)
assume production constant at 2800bopd.
for additional 100bopd (after 2800bopd), PTR will generate revenue after oil tax, opex and debt, PER YEAR = 23.24x 100 x 360 days = USD 0.84m
---------------------------
scenario 1:
if PTR able to increase production to 3000bopd from Dec 2013 till May 2015, after paying all debts, PTR will have generated revenue of 10.3m+(0.84x2x1.5 year) = USD 12.8m
then, from June 2015, revenue will be = 18.7m+(0.84x2)= USD 20.4m per year
if wells are producing at least another 5 years from june 2015, so, total cash will be 20.4x5 + 12.8m (12.8 being net revenue till May 2015) = USD 115m revenue after oil tax, opex and paying all debts
scenario 2:
if PTR able to increase production to 4000bopd from Dec 2013 till May 2015, after paying all debts, PTR will have generated revenue of 10.3+(0.84x12x1.5 year) = USD 25.4m
then, from June 2015, revenue will be = 18.7m+(0.84x12)= USD 28.8m per year
if wells are producing at least another 5 years from june 2015, so, total cash will be 28.8x5 + 25.4m (25.4 being net revenue till May 2015) = USD 170m revenue after oil tax, opex and paying all debts