Ben Golliver

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[b]Ben Golliver [/b] Opinion | California’s ham-fisted war on pork offers some useful lessons

The presidential returns of 1920 heralded the start of KDKA's broadcasts. On July 2, 1921, RCA broadcasted the heavyweight championship fight between Jack Dempsey and George Carpenter while WJZ broadcasted the World Series. While sports, politics and news were certainly of interest, radio executives wanted more entertaining fare to entice and retain larger audiences. Larger audiences meant the networks could charge the shows' sponsors higher advertising rates. Typically, networks provided free programming but sold ad time to sponsors to run prior to or within the program; this was known as barter syndication. The Lone Ranger," where just as the Lone Ranger rode away on his horse, a bystander would say, "Who was that masked man? ­Like radio dramas, the radio soap opera was set up to draw in audiences and keep them listening. They also ran for approximately 15 minutes and focused on a cast of central, recurring characters. Unlike serial dramas, however, they didn't resolve storylines in each episode but drew them out through several episodes while introducing other plots and subplots along the way.
The authors of the Psychological Science paper aren't the first researchers to study childhood factors that lead to financial success or failure in adulthood. What is unique about Ritchie and Bates' research is that they were able to isolate two seemingly secondary factors - reading level and math performance at 7 years old - and show how these numbers could predict adult success, independent of every other variable. Of the 18,000 people in the U.K. For the kids who scored in the top 20 percent in math and reading, the result was adult achievement several notches above their peers. In an e-mail from Stuart Ritchie, co-author of the Psychological Science paper, the researcher clarified that childhood reading and math performance were only two of several strong indicators of adult success. The child's original socioeconomic status, intelligence level at age 11, academic motivation at age 16 and total years of education each rate statistically higher than math and reading as predictors of future success.
We looked at more than 10,000 criminal defendants in Broward County, Florida, and compared their predicted recidivism rates with the rate that actually occurred over a two-year period. When most defendants are booked in jail, they respond to a COMPAS questionnaire. We compared the recidivism risk categories predicted by the COMPAS tool to the actual recidivism rates of defendants in the two years after they were scored, and found that the score correctly predicted an offender’s recidivism 61 percent of the time, but was only correct in its predictions of violent recidivism 20 percent of the time. In forecasting who would re-offend, the algorithm correctly predicted recidivism for black and white defendants at roughly the same rate (59 percent for white defendants, and 63 percent for black defendants) but made mistakes in very different ways. It misclassifies the white and black defendants differently when examined over a two-year follow-up period. Black defendants were often predicted to be at a higher risk of recidivism than they actually were.


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[b]Ben Golliver [/b]
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