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World Stocks

Range Resources

Accelerated work program

(ASX:RRS / AIM:RRL / PINK:RGRLF & RGRYY)
Informed Discussion. No ramping. No deramping.

Accelerated work program

Post Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:40 am

What are people’s thoughts on this? Once again we wait on the results of yet another review of plans except this time it’s for the 2018 work programme in the middle of July! How many more drills can they do than 2 now anyway...assuming things slow down in dec that’s 16 weeks from the end of the month. It’s been almost two months since they announced the review....any momentum with this company seems so far off.
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Razzledazzle
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:56 am

My thoughts are that much like GKP, there may well be a solution to saving the company in 18 months time, but current equity will be destroyed - even more so than it has to date.

We will bumble along with ok growth, but nothing like what is required to give equity a decent deal when refinancing is done.

Looking objectively (which is sadly difficult) the company will survive, but it will never - never - pass the ‘so what’ test.

That is to say, Range will never impact or influence anything and therefore what is the point in its existence?

I am resigned to Range’s inconsequential future. Perhaps if we somehow claw our way to 0.5p that should be my new sell target? 50% loss at that level, but palatable.

I can already see that Indonesia is another ‘meh’.

We will continue to drill and WF in TT and release announcements to say oil produced, but nothing of any consequence. The bottom line is no matter how hard the board and workers try, the geography and talent is just not there.

I’m resigned to my fate.
Canaries60
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:39 pm

Never never...really Canaries !

What is the point of existence ? err, ok 24p is out of the question but a 300-500% increase isnt out of the question.

Re-read last years accounts - they wrote off everything, ready for a fresh start. Nearly $30m i believe
Since then we have had three quarterly reports that keep improving
Even q2 will show an improvement on q1 which was an improvement on q4 2017 which was an improvement on q3 2017
WTI has also risen significantly in past 12-15 months & with bopd rising, that will give much needed extra revenue to Range.

BUT, as we have all said, Range do not have a clue how to shout out loud about successes. We have the amateur Eva as the PR supremo & It isnt good enough. Since the rampy days of Landau doing Range's PR, we have gone 180 degrees it seems & are now afraid to stick any realistic target out there & afraid to be wrong. And we never seem to give updates regularly as Razz pointed out. It needs to stop & change if we are to attract new shareholders who I believe could see their investment treble from here this year once annuals are out
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Loadsamoney
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:22 pm

we are still burning the cash pile and haven't a clue how the debt will be repayed.

we need 1000s of bopd increase soon not 100s, otherwise as said an equity raise is inevitable, and possibly a debt conversion.

it doesn't look great
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boobs
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:03 pm

And the prospect of having to raise again must be the single biggest thing putting off potential new investors. Workovers won't cut it. Successful waterflood is the only way we were going to see ourselves out of the hole we are in. And that appears to be going shitely. I just don’t think 15% uplift quarter on quarter, pleasant though it is, isn’t going to cut the mustard Loadsa.
rasclaat bambaclaat
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:13 pm

RB

No idea what they are going to do
I have suspected for a long time that they will seek a new loan to cover existing loans and possibly add a bit on top for working capital


People say no progress

13/03/2017 (suspension day)
WTI was $48.40 & bopd 567 x 365 = annual Gross Receipts of $10,016,622

TODAY
WTI is $73.50 & bopd 775 x 365 = annual Gross Receipts of $20,791,313

and SP gone from 0.35p to 0.20p
IT DOESNT ADD UP

Once new investors see the progress in annual accounts, then we have a chance of new investors and SP correction
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Loadsamoney
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:39 pm

The progress isn’t enough or quick enough, the company is staring down the barrel.
When the loan is due only LO will refinance it, nobody else in their right mind would touch it. LO are in a hole it’s either a refinance with security over the assets or a D4E with massive dilution and LO effectively taking control.

Like I said we need 1000s of bopd. At the moment this company is a zombie slowly burning the cash pile until crunch time
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boobs
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:57 pm

The only way out I can see is if they can do an LO.. Use RRDSL to completely shaft someone else.
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Razzledazzle
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:33 pm

dunno but 280,201,840 options get wiped at the end of the week
kemp91
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:41 pm

Loadsa, no one is arguing there hasn't been progress....it's just that it's too little, too late.

Both waterflood projects appear to have stalled and are being now being marketed as lessons learnt (see Q and A). Expensive lessons learnt.

Indonesia if all goes well will add 35 bopd this year. As Canaries says 'meh'.

How long will it take to get new waterflood projects up and running?

They seem to be in no hurry to accelerate development drilling in TT....the review has been ongoing since May.

As I say the only thing that might save us is an RRDSL contract and then the margins are slim.

In short we are unfortunately screwed as LTH's. The board have no interest in the share price....perhaps the whole idea is to drift until LO money is due, LO refinance but effectively own the entire company. That scenario is only 18 months away.

Next small jump I am out after 7 years and at least 90% losses.
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Razzledazzle
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:08 pm

Whatever you do Razz, dont take those Tena pants off ffs !

No guarentees with drilling or waterflood, thats obvious.
Remember back in the day when Liardau talked about 10,000 bopd for Range ?
I dont recall such rampy predictions with new lot, they have learned their lessons & if anything are under playing/promising & over delivering

M Diablo waterflood - it was clear, if you followed the numbers, it wasnt going anywhere since Sept last year
As for Marcelle, it seems to have got stuck at 200bopd & Im not satisfied in how Range has handled that news. But even if its peaked, its still $14,000 per day gross. We wait and see

As for progress too little too late, I disagree. Back in March 17 we would have snatched at todays WTI of over $70 (when it was $48) and back then we would have taken 820 bopd when we were stuck at 567. So potential income has grown from $10m to $20m & its not progress ? Lets say we ave 1000 bopd in new financial year at say $70, thats $25m or $5m up on current levels - enough to pay the interest on a new loan that will pay off current one & possibly give some more working capital.
This isnt old Range of 1 step forward & 2 back, we have progressed month on month & quarter by quarter. Income in this financial year will be a big leap forward from last year
And lets not forget, they sunk last years accounts. They were always going to be bad with WTI so low & bopd on tick over so they wrote off all the goodwill - all $29 million worth. Thats not happening this time around

As for Indonesia, stop whinging about that. We knew half a year back it was 10 wells and 200 bopd gross & wed get 23% or some 45 bopd. And for that privilage, Range are putting in $3.6m this year to accelerate workloads. This is just a loss leader clearly. The big aim is to see how that goes & then once we see value & gain a 42% stake we accelerate even more.

As for Trinidad, I see eventually becoming secondary. Id like to see RRDSL sub contracted more than not as it may be more profitable that drilling depleating wells and doing workovers. And the jury is out on waterflood for the moment.

The ONLY thing not catching up with operational progress is the SP & its being suppressed. Ive been watching & whenever the ask goes up., along comes something to knock it back down and quickly.

We will know much more once q2 2018 figures are released & then we will have headline numbers for the full year accounts - look at the numbers & turnaround....bopd and income and p&l bottom line - all hugely improving.
And its the new accounts when published that potential new shareholders will read over next 12 months, not the shitty accounts from last year

We will see but I fully expect a nice SP uplift post full year accounts out. If not, I see may resolutions in Nov being voted down but operationally done well so cant see that happening. Its down to accounts & SP correction for me

But dont take my numbers as gospel, have a look at last 3 quarterlies & add them up

IMO
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Loadsamoney
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:15 am

Loadsa, you were doing well until you went all Celtic on us, talking about someone suppressing the share price.

No one is suppressing the share price, for one simple reason...NO ONE IS INTERESTED IN THIS SHARE.

Let’s see what happens to the share price with FY accounts. I’m going for 20% up, then a 3 month drift back down, because, again, NO ONE IS WATCHING AND NO ONE CARES.

Now, where are those Tena pads....?
Canaries60
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Fri Jul 13, 2018 8:34 am

Loadsa you keep saying we’ll get a new loan like it’s not a problem. RRL will have a hell of a problem refinancing a debt pile that is 3 or 4 times the market cap.
All spare cash will be consumed maintaining production not paying down the debt.

For example look at nighthawk, low cost US production in excess of ours and couldn’t refinance a $20m debt. The company has gone bust and the asset sold off
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boobs
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:16 am

Even kev and DBW have given up. End of an era.
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Razzledazzle
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:01 am

Razz

Your starting to sound like a troll now

I can tell you for a fact, Kev has had very serious personal health problems this year & Dan has had very bad family problems.

If your not happy, sell up, its that simple
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Loadsamoney
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:09 am

Canaries
Ive watched it live. The ask goes up & within minutes its back down again. You tell me whats that all about. ?
And lets not start on the stupidly small sell trades, you think selling under £20 worth isnt deliberate ?. Yes in scheme of things its not material but someone is desperate to drag sp down

Anyway, not bothered, Ill load up on dips as I know whats coming in full year accounts. Ive done my homework & analysis and dont need Tena pants !!


meant to say this on last post:

Kev - I hope your pulling through. Be strong & hope your health is improving. Be good to see you make the odd posts here too if your up to it
Dan - Sorry about all your troubles, be strong & again, be good to hear from you too

Canaries60 wrote:
> Loadsa, you were doing well until you went all Celtic on us, talking about
> someone suppressing the share price.
>
> No one is suppressing the share price, for one simple reason...NO ONE IS
> INTERESTED IN THIS SHARE.
>
> Let’s see what happens to the share price with FY accounts. I’m going for
> 20% up, then a 3 month drift back down, because, again, NO ONE IS WATCHING
> AND NO ONE CARES.
>
> Now, where are those Tena pads....?
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Loadsamoney
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:07 pm

Unfortunately Loadsa, the other guys are likely to be right. Range appears to have made progress but even a large improvement on piss poor doesn't actually amount to much; especially with having to refinance the huge debts.

I only have a few RBD as I'm generally keeping away from AIM oilers but Range hasn't got a chance of attracting new investors or even traders with competition for investors funds with companies such as RBD around. It's got an mcap of around £21m and 6 major drills this year. See https://twitter.com/search?q=%23RBD&src=tyah

Really Loadsa, think about it. What has Range got on the horizon to cause similar excitement and potential re-rate and multi bag?
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miniboy
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:52 pm

Mini
Welcome back

Quite simple really, they have a vastly improved full year set of account to publish that potential new shareholders will use to decide if to invest or not
Last years accounts were simply dire & they wrote off all the remaining goodwill - some $29m I believe
Its all geared to last years accounts being a reset.
Since then we will soon to have 4x quarterly reports - all an improvement on the previous one. On top of that WTI has woken up & is also doing Range a favour.

16 months ago gross turnover was about $10 million. Today, its over $20 million. Increase bopd & turnover will likely be $25 million (assuming WTI holds). All that is more than enough for Range to seek a loan to pay a loan & possibly add a bit on top for working capital.

I dont disagree with others that say Range need to start seriously improving bopd. Can it be with waterflood anymore ? Cant be with shallow drills so maybe outsourcing will be biggest earner, if we get some

Id much rather be in Range today than 16 months ago when suspended. Thats not ramping, thats just recognising the improvements made.

Well see after full year accounts released, what the SP is likely to go to

GL with Hull this coming season
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Loadsamoney
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:56 pm

Loadsa, Loadsa, Loadsa.

Bubala.....
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Momo
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Fri Jul 13, 2018 7:00 pm

Momo Momo Momo

Sorry bud, your not my type !
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Loadsamoney
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:24 pm

I genuinely hope you're right Loadsa.
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Razzledazzle
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:26 pm

I sent Eva some questions and got the below replies:

1. In the Q and A the answer to the question about PR mentioned audio and video interviews. Could you please send me the links to these as I'd be interested to check them out.



These are our planned initiatives. Once recorded and published, they will be available on our website and Twitter.



2. The accelerated work programme review for 2018 was announced as in progress end of May. Being it is now mid July could we expect this soon? I only ask because it is 4 months until the end if Nov....is there enough time left to do more than a couple of drills?



We will be publishing an update on this during July.



3. Could you elaborate on why it took almost 5 months to make a decision to fix, not replace the water-pump? It seems an awful long time considering our urgent need for production increase.



The operations team were evaluating different quotations for a new purchase. It was decided that the quotations received were too high and a new purchase would have proved uneconomic. Therefore, they have decided to repair the existing pump instead which is a cheaper option.
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Razzledazzle
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:33 pm

Shows what a shambles PR is. Plenty of "planned initiatives", but no follow through. It's like they are sleepwalking through a storm.

Action needs to be taken but they just bumble from one review to another and indignantly claiming all is well. That whole situation re the truck.... Why would you cancel a contract before you had another option in place?? How much did we lose in lost sales?

I think we are in for a wake-up call when they publish the update on the drilling plan and waterflood in the next couple of weeks.

Let's hope the quarterly makes for better reading
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Razzledazzle
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Sat Jul 14, 2018 12:06 am

Razz

I couldnt agree with you more re PR being IMO a shambles & definitely amateurish in content, style and regularity
Id (almost) suggest we go back to Landau PR ways - at least people listened & took note, even if it was all BS !!! Didnt he mention 10000 bopd at one point ?

Interesting you published Evas reply re accelerated work programme & she said in July (yes, what year lol)

So 17 days left in July & we now know were getting :
1) Notification of expiry of options
14 July 2018 £0.01 161,472,247
14 July 2018 £0.02 118,729,593
I think these were for Abrahams $12m loan - see rns 15/05/14

2) Accelerated Drilling Programme update - per Eva to you

3) Quarterly Activity Report - which should confirm further improvements in bopd and in monies received. And from this you will be able to work out the full year accounts for these key numbers - im hoping for 775 bopd and $4m receipts this time

Also, possible video/twitter re planned initiatives

As for drilling programme, I thing they were caught between drilling and sub contracting & were pushing hard on the sub contract front, hense they were unsure what targets to put out there for shareholders to moan at - tricky one but lets see what they plan (and that could easily change if Range get more contract work to do)

Lastly, I hear people cant see if this SP can shift. Yes it does seem stubborn currently but full year accounts will prove progress is being made. And in the past Range have gone 0.6 to 2.6p and from 5p up to 20p+ so 4 fold and five fold increases are possible & more range shares are not traded. Four fold from here & your back to what our major shareholders paid. Dooable but needs a strong head wind, good results and some good PR/headlines.

Interesting times coming up
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Loadsamoney
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:23 am

I think there are a number of factors we need to take into account. Some positive and some negative.
In T&T nearly every development we do needs to be written off/sanctioned by Petrotrin. Petrotrin at the moment is a shambles, it has no leadership, is under investigation for losing billions last year in unexplained consultation fees and is generally moribund - will it take on a new role? So at the moment any investment in T&T will probably be on hold.
Development in T&T has been haphazard and piecemeal and as has been shown with Ranges waterflood creates difficulties in developments that need pipelines crossing pipelines.
Does the attempts to sell drilling services into mainland South America mean that Range is downgrading it's T&T operations?
Have a rethink on Perlak. A proven field with multiple reservoir levels that has been untouched for 6 years. The original estimate was 200 bopd from 10 workovers and reopening two wells.
There was some comment that they believed that in the years the wells were capped that some reservoir pressure had been rebuilt. The first well they did, and I accept that the bopd calculations were a bit unusual to say the least, was in excess of 100 bopd - half the total predicted.
The current BOD as we all know are being prudent with the cash reserves.
Is Indonesia likely to prove a better use for our cash and are the BOD holding back while work continues in Indonesia especially as the work pace is exceeding the published programme.
Like the majority of investors I'd like things to be settled and more open but I believe that the BOD can't do that at the moment as quite honestly they don't have enough info to judge which way to jump with our money - T&T or Perlak and quite honestly I'd prefer them to take their time than rush it and get it wrong.
Nedkellylandau
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:45 am

Nedkellylandau wrote:
> The first well they did, and I accept that the bopd calculations were a bit
> unusual to say the least, was in excess of 100 bopd - half the total predicted.

The first Indonesian well produced 145 barrels ... in total ... over 2 weeks. No flow rate was published.
As they were only pumping intermittently, approx 117 hours (just under 5 days) over the 2 weeks, on average that would equate to just 30 bopd.
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day_tripper
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:58 am

just 30bopd...........

Didnt they say that over 10 wells they hope to get 200 bopd gross ?
I make that 20 bopd each on average

So 30 bopd is a 50% over achievement

Its not like we werent told what to expect
And yes $3.6 million (60% of $6m) costs for 23% of 200 bopd is 46 bopd for Range & on face of it doesnt seem worth it. But didnt they say its low risk & the chance to get to 42% ownership. So these 10 wells may determine if we chuck more money at it or not (above committed amount that is)
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Loadsamoney
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Sat Jul 14, 2018 2:29 pm

I do wonder whether the oil companies in T&T have enough understanding of the underlying geology and oilfields.

They have all been caught out by the speed at which production tails off. This can only be because they do not understand the underlying geology. Do they have enough expertise for the enhanced recovery required? Why is the pressure disappearing so quickly? Is the oil migrating in ways in which they do not understand and moving to other oilfields?

I am a total amateur at all this but I do believe that one of the key factors to ensure recovery is the ability of Range's Trinidad oilfield management and engineers. That is why these reviews are so important and cannot be rushed.

They need to get it right.
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Rexco
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:41 am

Only around 15% to 20% of oil is recovered from Primary recovery using the wells natural pressure in the majority of wells so it is easy to see why these shallow wells, that have been worked for decades are depleting so quickly. With water-flood the recovery adds on average an additional 30%. At some point we need to revisit the deeper plays, in particular the Herreras as there has been relatively little deep exploration in TT. There is still a lot of oil to be discovered in this region both on and offshore, located as it is offshore Venezuela, the largest oil reserves on the planet, estimated at around 270 Billion barrels. [IMG]http://i66.tinypic.com/2yx2683.jpg[/IMG]
Celticheart07
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Sun Jul 15, 2018 10:34 am

Loadsamoney wrote:
> Didnt they say that over 10 wells they hope to get 200 bopd gross ?
> I make that 20 bopd each on average
>
> So 30 bopd is a 50% over achievement

50% over achievement? How do we know expectations for the first well wasn't 50 bopd with the other planned wells contributing less?

The information that we have been provided so far is meaningless - let's see what the actual stabilised flow rate of the well will be.
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day_tripper
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:47 am

RNS out confirming unlisted options have now expired
FUBAR@Birth
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:20 am

What's the bet the TT update, the first since may will be lumped in with the quarterlies
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Razzledazzle
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:03 pm

More to the point Razz, whats the betting your happy with any RNS this year :-)

Sadly, the way Range PR International Comms PLC works, it'll probably all be thrown in together !
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Loadsamoney
 
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Re: Accelerated work program

Post Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:40 pm

Can we change the topic to decelerated work programme as this company and anything to do with it is cursed?
Indi
 
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