It is currently Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:54 am

World Stocks

Range Resources

Share Price Logic

(ASX:RRS / AIM:RRL / PINK:RGRLF & RGRYY)
Informed Discussion. No ramping. No deramping.

Share Price Logic

Post Wed May 16, 2018 7:36 am

Can anyone explain why oil price doesn’t move the share price given that revenue will climb significantly?
rob295
 
Posts: 134
Joined: Dec 2015

Re: Share Price Logic

Post Wed May 16, 2018 7:40 am

Rob, I strongly believe it's ineffective comms. Updates are inconsistent and sporadic and good news is hidden away in quarterlies. Management is just not doing an effective job of putting Range on buyers radars.
User avatar
Razzledazzle
 
Posts: 2203
Joined: May 2012

Re: Share Price Logic

Post Wed May 16, 2018 9:41 am

Rob
When RRL was suspended I think the SP was about .35 and the output was around 450 bopd
When Range came out of suspension it had gained RRDSL and the Perlak acquisition. Oil production is approaching 800 bopd, near double the production at time of suspension.
We have new assets and nearly doubled production. POO has nearly doubled and the SP has halved. No logic to it but I do agree the BOD need to have a serious look at their communication strategy. I think, that like many of us, the SP would take care of itself as production increased and it obviously has not, especially with the increased price of oil.
A rethink is required.
Interesting yesterday that as soon as the ask dropped to .20 there were quite a few buyers.
Nedkellylandau
 
Posts: 1941
Joined: Mar 2013
Location: Lost on the Range

Re: Share Price Logic

Post Wed May 16, 2018 9:45 am

Rob - I partly agree with Raz on comms, particularly about consistency.

However the reason we are not moving is about previous management comms. Essentially they were consistently bulls**t and outright lies. Year after year of it. As a result this company is not trusted. As there are plenty of other opportunities out there that is where investor money goes - until this company is once again achieves trusted status.

I believe that the new management are well aware of this and that is reflected in their (currently imperfect) comms. They are telling us the 'less than best' as well as the good stuff, but it is a long way to come back from.

I think that when they get to 1000 bbd people will start to take a more serious look - the company having:
1) climbed back from the edge of the abyss
2) actually achieved a meaningful target
3) pushed costs down to more affordable levels that will enable repayment of the debt or
re-financing at reasonable rates

The increasing income from PoO and rising production is changing the picture but the legacy of previous management is pretty catastrophic. The new guys seem to be doing the 'right things' - albeit with some hick-ups - so we are going in the right direction.

The problem with trust is that it has to be earned. Our problem is twice that:
1) overcome a legacy reputation of mis-trust
2) build a new reputation for rust that is well evidenced in delivery and management performance

I think that is happening, but it is a slow process and the share price will reflect that as we get through a period of improvement in performance that drives improvement in trust and investor confidence.

However a medium to long term horizon perhaps better reflects the business attitudes and culture of our major Chinese investors. They paid (i think) .8p and expect to see a good return on that - but not next week or next month. All a bit of a 'slow burn' however frustrating we are all finding that, but the last 6-9 months have shown material and consistent steps forward - we just need the trust thing to catch up and accelerate that progress.
tennents
 
Posts: 71
Joined: Jul 2012

Re: Share Price Logic

Post Wed May 16, 2018 10:22 am

Good post Tennents.
The drilling crew were always a drain on resources. There’s too little knowledge about their current activity to know if that is the case now.

RRL considerably reduced the amount of drilling activity from their original plans and made it look like selling drilling services was to become a major part of revenue. There’s no evidence that that strategy is working yet.

AIM is a cesspit and Range unfortunately spent most of its existence as one of the smelliest on it.

AIM companies are all high risk so investors gamble for high returns. Is running a drilling company going to provide those exciting returns? Or even cover their costs?

BOPD has been rising albeit to a lot lower figure than even Landau managed (even though they dont have anyone that use a dipstick) but with his history of lies and incompetence you need to ask yourselves how many potential new investors (especially HNW) will consider RRL as a multibagger that most AIM investors seek

I’m staying well away from AIM oilers but have been following a few mainly as mates in other shares post about them on BB’s I am on. Take a look at RBD for example and compare with RRL and ask yourselves which has the bigger potential for multibagging.
User avatar
miniboy
 
Posts: 4179
Joined: Mar 2012

Re: Share Price Logic

Post Wed May 16, 2018 10:57 am

As I keep saying, Range are getting their shit together - last 3x quarterly updates show ever increasing improvements.
We have already made in Receipts in 1st 3x quarters, the same as in the full year accounts last year
Last 3x quarterlies show bopd rising 9% + 9% + 16%
Receipts in past 2x quarters show increases of 17.4% and 30.2%
Full year, im expecting bopd to be 30% higher than last year (assuming 775 in 4th quarter)
Full year Im expecting receipts to be 45-50% higher than last year (assuming 3.8m in 4th quarter)

All these will come out in early October with full year accounts & maybe then people might buy into the recovery story

However, the 1x amateur thing we must improve on is PR/Comms. What was that PR push with Malcy all about a couple of months ago - hardly a push was it. That Indonesia accident was sad & great to see Range issue an RNS straight away BUT whats happened out their since ? Has it affected our "plans" ? what plans ? what comms ?
And back to Trin, what have they done to recover the bopd drop in Feb & Mar ?

The only thing I was told by Eva on any plans to get back to 800bopd she said quote
"We have a clear plan to get to 800 bopd by the end of June by implementing the following activities during the current quarter:
Acquiring its own truck (in addition to one existing truck already in use) to increase the frequency of trucking at the Beach Marcelle field;
Installing an additional 500 barrel oil storage tank at the Beach Marcelle field. This will increase the oil storage capacity at the field to 2,100 barrels;
Completing 44 workovers, reactivation and swabbing activities at the Beach Marcelle, Morne Diablo and South Quarry fields."

Why the **** havent they issues this in an RNS update ????
So someone wisely has realised trucks break down & perhaps we need a 2nd one - really ffs !!! Does anyone out there know what planning & back up planning is !

and to make it even worse, i got this on 14th May - 3.5 months after the RNS saying they were looking into this
"the team is still looking at a cost-effective solution to address varying influx of Petrotrin water during the day, including a new pump"
SO WE ARE STILL LOOKING, NEARLY 4 MONTHS LATER

At least with no sign of any contract work being agreed, it looks like the staff are going flat out on increasing bopd via workovers

BE BLOODY NICE TO BE UPDATED IN HONEST & OPEN COMMS THOUGH - this is why I say we need a Comms/PR Director & not Eva having a go on a 2nd hand typewriter !

Rant over, Razz keep going with the petition on comms but for me, include a designated soel purpose Director of Comms/PR into it please - I feel its that important
User avatar
Loadsamoney
 
Posts: 3474
Joined: Mar 2012

Re: Share Price Logic

Post Wed May 16, 2018 11:37 am

Loadsa
April quarterly report contained the truck and oil storage news and yes it would have had more impact as an RNA
"
OPERATIONS - TRINIDAD
Range is pleased to be reporting significant production growth in Trinidad of 731 bopd, a 16% increase from the prior quarter. The majority of the production growth is attributed to the Beach Marcelle field.
Production at the Beach Marcelle field fluctuated during the quarter as a result of insufficient oil handling and storage capacity at the field. Early in the quarter, as a temporary solution the Company was using a rental truck to increase the frequency of trucking the produced oil from some of the wells. However, given the high cost associated with renting a truck from a third party, the Company terminated the arrangement, which resulted in only one tanker unit being used later in the quarter. In addition, due to lack of oil storage capacity some of the producing wells had to be temporarily suspended to prevent overflow.
To address these issues and increase production to above 800 bopd during the current quarter, Range is implementing the following actions:
· Acquiring its own truck (in addition to one existing truck already in use) to increase the frequency of trucking at the Beach Marcelle field;
· Installing an additional 500 barrel oil storage tank at the Beach Marcelle field. This will increase the oil storage capacity at the field to 2,100 barrels;
· Completing 44 workovers, reactivation and swabbing activities at the Beach Marcelle, Morne Diablo and South Quarry fields.
Nedkellylandau
 
Posts: 1941
Joined: Mar 2013
Location: Lost on the Range

Re: Share Price Logic

Post Wed May 16, 2018 1:55 pm

Yes Ned but does it really take 4 months to find a water pump solution...let alone buy it and install it. ?
Noone take 4 months to think of a solution
4 days but not 4 months !
User avatar
Loadsamoney
 
Posts: 3474
Joined: Mar 2012

Re: Share Price Logic

Post Thu May 17, 2018 11:43 am

Oil $72.11 wti
https://uk.investing.com/commodities/cr ... rical-data
and
https://news.sky.com/story/oil-tops-80- ... s-11375843

Q2 is so far 7.7% up on Q1 WTI average
at that rate & a 775 bopd ave, receipts will be circa $4m in just this 1 quarter & that would give up a 50% rise in receipts over last full year

So full year would give a 30% bopd rise & a 50% receipt rise if this last 4th quarter continues as is till end June

Such a shame were too shy to tell anyone about it !


Loadsamoney wrote:
> As I keep saying, Range are getting their shit together - last 3x quarterly
> updates show ever increasing improvements.
> We have already made in Receipts in 1st 3x quarters, the same as in the
> full year accounts last year
> Last 3x quarterlies show bopd rising 9% + 9% + 16%
> Receipts in past 2x quarters show increases of 17.4% and 30.2%
> Full year, im expecting bopd to be 30% higher than last year (assuming 775
> in 4th quarter)
> Full year Im expecting receipts to be 45-50% higher than last year
> (assuming 3.8m in 4th quarter)
>
> All these will come out in early October with full year accounts &
> maybe then people might buy into the recovery story
User avatar
Loadsamoney
 
Posts: 3474
Joined: Mar 2012

Re: Share Price Logic

Post Thu May 17, 2018 12:33 pm

Loadsa
You really need to stop replying to your own posts!!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't you know the rules?
Nedkellylandau
 
Posts: 1941
Joined: Mar 2013
Location: Lost on the Range

Re: Share Price Logic

Post Fri May 18, 2018 11:37 am

Funny how time has changed my views
Was looking for a healthy return at one point, now looking to break even - retuning a healthy outlay that I can disapear off with and a well learned lesson!
Been an absolute nightmare this share. I've held at 100 dollar oil and now we're back sniffing around 80 dollar oil. If Range could create any excitement at all then we could be on the move. Its been a long time since Rory was booted by disgruntled investors, they're yet to see a return either. Just makes you realise what a mess this actually was. For all the stick we (I) give them it'd clear Range is around because of them.
User avatar
Momo
 
Posts: 4462
Joined: Mar 2012
Location: Relax nothing yet...

Re: Share Price Logic

Post Fri May 18, 2018 12:52 pm

Momo
Agreed
Things have been really slow but they have turned this boat around dinally. We have had 3x increasingly omproving quarterly results with qtr to june to come to make up the full year. Already hit last years receipts and rhis 4rh quarter should be the best of the 4x quarters.
Only thing lagging is the comms and sp.
How close to going under were we in the past.....probably very close.
Yes rhere is debt to reorganise in 12 months or so but we go cap in hand with a significantly imprived bipd abd rexeipts and decrease in losses and improved balance sheet.
Well get there and it would help if eva could put some new ribbon in her typewriter !!
User avatar
Loadsamoney
 
Posts: 3474
Joined: Mar 2012

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests

Search

User Control Panel