Is a share price of 1p actually achievable?

[ritchieg01]

Simple question: Is a share price of 1p achievable at any point or is it just a pipe dream?

I have been averaging down ever since we relisted and managed to get it down to 1.08p, however I am beginning to think it’s not going to happen any time soon.
With the activities over the past few months I have been expecting the share price to be at least half way there, or at the very least above the pre suspension price of 0.34p.
If you compare what we have now compared to the day we went into suspension it beggars belief that we not a whole lot higher than we are now.
Seriously what is it going to take to get the share price moving and then actually staying there.
I am in a quandary now, foolishly continue averaging down in the expectation/hope that the share price will eventually get to 1p, throwing good money after bad or start to bail out now and look to make my money back in another share.

I remember a few years back a suggestion that each 1000 BOPD was very roughly/crudely equivalent to a share price of 1p, in which case the share price should be around 0.78p now with the hope/expectation of 1000 BOPD and therefore 1p by the end of the year.
After 5 years the faith and confidence is finally starting to wain and the retirement plan well and truly on hold.

[rasclaat bambaclaat]

Ritchie,

I think 1000 bopd will help.

As will proof that waterflood works and will significantly add to bopd.

IF we do that in relatively short order, we should be on the way....

[Loadsamoney]

OR IF we can get one of those multi million dollar contracts from Petrotrin or something substantial from Shell or someone else
Sub Contract work is likely to be more profitable

And yes 1p is achievable - it all depends on bopd increase & sub contract work and who knows what else in Indonesia

[Rexco]

1p share price will give a market cap of c. £76m.

The Equity value of the company on 31st December was US$12.2m (£9m).

That equates to a share price of 0.12p which is why the share price is so low.

The fact is all those averaging down are kidding themselves if they do not take into account the lost value and lost income on the initial investment. £10,000 invested 5 years ago is worth a lot less than £10,000 in 5 years time.

Obviously a share price of 1p is achievable but not if they keep making mistakes.

[Razzledazzle]

No imo. Current management are seemingly incapable of creating any form of sustained good will/buying pressure. Thus is the second time they have released a bopd figure then backtracked in the quarterly to a lower number. They are also sly... Average 1000 bopd for 2018 is very different to 1000 bopd. They keep shifting gears and goalposts and pretending they haven't. What are our expensive rigs doing at the moment? It's may.

[rob295]

On higher oil yes... we have low break even, so 1000bopd plus $90/bbl should suffice. Share price is barely moving with oil price atm which is strange.

[Nedkellylandau]

Razzledazzle wrote:
> No imo. Current management are seemingly incapable of creating any form of
> sustained good will/buying pressure. Thus is the second time they have
> released a bopd figure then backtracked in the quarterly to a lower number.
> They are also sly... Average 1000 bopd for 2018 is very different to 1000
> bopd. They keep shifting gears and goalposts and pretending they haven't.
> What are our expensive rigs doing at the moment? It's may.


Razz
Never let facts get in the way of a good moan. The BOD haven't said 1000 bopd for 2018 - they have said it will be greater than 1000 and the rigs are probably doing more of the well workovers that they have been doing for most of the year but I don't want a daily update on workovers.

Will be reach an SP of 1p? this will depend if contract work in the pipeline pans out or if war breaks out in the middle east

[Momo]

Unlikely really.
If a Landau type character was running the show then he could talk it up there with his personality.
Our current shy guys are happy with basic salaries as far as we can tell.

[Loadsamoney]

Im amazed some people are still here TBH

Our current shy guys are happy with basic salaries as far as we can tell.

Really, so bopd quarterly increases of +9%, +9% and +16% isnt progress then ?
WTI last 2 quarters is UP 15.0% and 13.6% - and April is so far UP a further 6.4% on Q1 ave
Receipts in last 2x quarters are UP 17.4% and 30.2%
Indonesia 3 years plan is all being done in 1st year

Yes, they fooked up planning in Feb & March so we dropped back a bit on bopd on Jan ave.

So what do people actually want, seems to me the only thing lagging behind is the bloody SP & if it was 0.35 a year ago on 550 bopd, it should be at least that now

H2 2017 vs H1 2018 - Ive been monitoring WTI & Bopd and so far WTI is UP 24.0% and Bopd UP 24.5%. Full year should also show a huge drop in losses and Im sure there is no more Goodwill imparements to write down - think its been about $40m over last 2 years

As for plans/targets, it would be great to set them in stone & have weekly progress updates to attempt to satisfy a few on here. The reality is Range are trying to win lucrative sub contract work so any ambitious bopd targets would be meaningless & jumped on by same few moaners on here. Cant see how Range can win on setting out plans for this year now we have a drilling company. The only thing they can do is underplay bopd targets hoping to win contract work & if not they will beat those targets.

Some people on here need to buy a supply of Tena for Men FFS !

[Nedkellylandau]

Loadsa
I'll see your tenna and raise you another tenna

[rasclaat bambaclaat]

Loadsa,

You are right to point out the increase in bopd and I agree that things are starting to look a little more positive.

However any potential investor may also note that these clowns took over 4 years ago, and have added what in that time- 250 bopd or there abouts? And an outlay of what during the period.....50 million?

As always, the good times are just around the corner. And they may be. But let’s wait and see. 1000 bopd by year end anyone?

[Momo]

Ooh side bets interesting

A tenner say we won't be more the a hundred barrels over the 1000 (or more) promised by 31st December 2018... Any takers?

Loadsa u said something about last years sp..
.even that now would show a pulse at least!

Lucrative contracts....ffs that should a side dish not the main course.

[Loadsamoney]

Lucrative contracts....ffs that should a side dish not the main course.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
not necessarily - it could be the biggest earner we have if we get a BIG contract
All about what gives us most profit again

Shallows ?
Waterflood ?
Workovers ?
A gamble on a herrera ? when they have admitted the geology is very complex
Sub-Contracting work ?

So really, the bopd target is only what we can achieve after all avenues of sub contract work is exhausted.

I suspect we NEED to do quite a bit of sub contract work to help pay the additional staff costs of RRDSL. Bopd is helping and Financially receipts are leaping up nicely.

Last year werent we at 0.35p with 550 bopd ? And this years accounts will MASSIVELY be an improvement on last full year

As for the 4 year comment with these clowns, do you really exhaust your oil reserves when WTI was down sub $40 a barrel ? Wed be losing money per barrel & wasting reserves - a poor management choice & im glad we only ticked over & nothing more whilst oil price was dire.

If people cant see the last 3x quarterly turnaround here, best get out...were all doomed & all that ! (not)

[Momo]

Come on it's only a tenner loadsa :)

[ritchieg01]

Momo wrote:
> Come on it's only a tenner loadsa :)


I will take you up on that tenner and raise you another £10, loser gives to winners charity of choice

[Momo]

mines great Ormand street? .... I'm on for 20 win or loose the bet as it'll go to your charity choice.

[Loadsamoney]

I will be quite happy if at year end bopd is 700 and we have outsourced nearly all the rigs & staff this year & are maybe sat on a lengthy lucrative contract or two..

That's why talk of bopd is crazy. It could be 700 & it could also be 2000 - it all depends on what the staff & rigs are doing & for whom

Momo...put your Tena pants back on please !



Bopd quarterly increases of +9%, +9% and +16% isnt progress then ?
WTI last 2 quarters is UP 15.0% and 13.6% - and April is so far UP a further 6.4% on Q1 ave
Receipts in last 2x quarters are UP 17.4% and 30.2%
Indonesia 3 years plan is all being done in 1st year

Full Year 2018, Im expecting
Bopd UP circa 30% and Receipts up circa 45-50%
Still not good enough ?

[ritchieg01]

Momo wrote:
> mines great Ormand street? .... I'm on for 20 win or loose the bet as it'll
> go to your charity choice.

Happy with that, great idea.
Ironically mines the same, so guess come year end GOSH get a nice £40, unless of course there are any others on here who fancy matching us.

[Razzledazzle]

Yeah except it's halfway through May and our rigs haven't done anything all year except for 10 days with Shell.

No way current management survives AGM with oil over $70 and the shareprice .20.

[tennents]

Razz

Your moaning is becoming really tedious - particularly as you repeatedly choose to ignore published information that has been replayed here by several different posters.

That is not 'debate' it is either comprehensive stupidity or 'an agenda'.

Your former charmingly childish learned forgetfulness has worn off. If you have nothing sensible to say....say nothing.

[Nedkellylandau]

Razzledazzle wrote:
> Yeah except it's halfway through May and our rigs haven't done anything all
> year except for 10 days with Shell.
>
> No way current management survives AGM with oil over $70 and the shareprice
> .20

Razz
Simple - prove that "our rigs haven't done anything at all except for 10 days with shell" or go and hide until the SP reaches 2p

As tenants has written, several including myself have tried to explain to you about drill use, time to set up pads and drills etc but you choose to ignore the posts. Never let information get in the way of a good moan!
Hint - you don't swab out a well with cotton buds.

[Loadsamoney]

Congrats Razz

That comment of yours below ties for 1st place for the all time WS dumb statements - you are tied with Omas 3756 posts
Sell up, you clearly dont want to listen to anything anyone else incl Range has to say
Lifes too short etc.....


Razzledazzle wrote:
> Yeah except it's halfway through May and our rigs haven't done anything all
> year except for 10 days with Shell.

[Momo]

Just noticed the ir Address change......it's a pay as u go office space...

Cost cutting or cause for concern?

Ms Evgenia Bezruchko
WeWork Aldwych House
71-79 Aldwych
London WC2B 4HN

[Loadsamoney]

dont set Razz off again ffs !


Momo wrote:
> Just noticed the ir Address change......it's a pay as u go office space...
>
> Cost cutting or cause for concern?
>
> Ms Evgenia Bezruchko
> WeWork Aldwych House
> 71-79 Aldwych
> London WC2B 4HN

[Nedkellylandau]

The announcement today from Touchstone that they have drilled 5 wells this year apparently without the help of RRDSL indicates that RRDSL might not be the big T&T cheese that has been made out! to be.

[Razzledazzle]

5 wells already. Wow. And yeah this holding pattern of no drilling yet no new contract work is getting concerning.

Why can't we just have a monthly tt update that gives us current bopd, waterflood status and number of workovers etc. Doesn't have to be exciting just keeping up in the loop. We've only had two stand alone TT updates all year ffs

[Razzledazzle]

Back to 15-20 with oil at crazy highs. Just reiterates this needs regular comms from the company or we will just drift down.

[Loadsamoney]

I actually agree with you Razz

Comms/PR are so important to a little co like Range & its time Range treated it so.

Anyone know any of the Directors email addresses to write to & which one is most likely to actually respond - assuming Eva doesnt control their emails that is ?
Might be worth a few of us writing to them highlighting our frustrations on lack of updates

Its so annoying because all the signs are that the full year accounts will be significantly improved in terms of bopd, receipts & profit/loss account. But by then the SP will be 0.00001p ffs !

[Nedkellylandau]

Loadsa
I wrote to two of the Chinese Directors and the snr female employee in T&T on the 19th feb 2018.
Eva refused to give any addresses so I sent the Chinese ones to Perth and the T&T one to head office there.
I'm still waiting for a response!
My main complaint at the time was that it didn't appear that there was anyone taking charge in T&T - a short time later someone was appointed and I'll give them the benefit of the doubt that they simply thought the matter was finished. I don't think they appointed someone on the strength of my letters, don't even know if they bothered to read them

Seems a blind alley as far as getting info is concerned.

As I've previously posted most senior staffs emails go first to their PAs and are vetted/dealt with or passed to the recipient. I doubt very much if our emails got past the first hurdle

[Razzledazzle]

Guys, what if we set up an online petition on change.org for instance. If we could get a couple of hundred signatures from this board alone surely that would carry more weight? We could keep our demands simple...something along the lines of:
----------------------------

The problem
In the AIM submission document Range promised to engage shareholders with regular updates, webcasts and Q and A's. News flow for the whole of 2018 from our key asset in Trinidad has been largely restricted to Quarterly updates.

We request a monthly TT update providing the following information:
Current BODP, waterflood update and new drill information if relevant. We request a general update on progress as relates to the work programme includuding number of heavy work-overs. The monthly update should include a follow up with progress reports on outstanding issues such as pump installation, storage capacity upgrades.
----------------------------

Someone else will no doubt be able to word this much better than me but what do you think? These petitions are super easy to set up and if we can get a decent amount of signatures and then send to the board and post on twitter etc they'll have to take notice.

Will surely be more effective than one off emails to Eva?

[Loadsamoney]

Go for it Razz but who do we sent it to ? - unlikely to reach a Director. I bet a PA or Eva have control over what emails they see

[Razzledazzle]

We can print and post it. And linking on ranges Twitter site will force them to take it seriously. All we are asking for is a monthly tt update... Even if it's just business as usual. Just keeping shareholders informed and not going for months of radio silence with no follow up references to previous issues (pump size, storage etc etc)

[Razzledazzle]

Loadsa and Ned (and anyone else) could you write a brief paragraph on what your issue is with current comms and what you would like to see.

[Razzledazzle]

For context there has not been a standalone TT operational update for almost 3 months (last one was 22 Feb - the work programme)

[rob295]

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detai ... 0-a-barrel

[Anson]

No definitely not.
0.0 of a penny is achievable tho

[kemp91]

I’d rather just hear news when there’s news to be heard. If there’s no news assume BAU...and no 1p is probably unlikely now. Hundreds of millions shares bought sub .75 will be a sell off

[Nedkellylandau]

kemp91 wrote:
> I’d rather just hear news when there’s news to be heard. If there’s no news
> assume BAU...and no 1p is probably unlikely now. Hundreds of millions
> shares bought sub .75 will be a sell off

Don't know that I agree with the sell off problem. If RRL are producing 1000 bopd and increasing, Perlak comes on stream and the price of oil continues at a high price then a lot of people, including some on here that have been desperate to offload, may think twice.

[Juicebox]

I see 1p as achievable to be honest based on the data we are currently seeing but probably towards mid late 2019.
I know at time of suspension we were at 0.35p and things are much improved – but the suspension, and especially ebbing in excess of 6 months, knocked confidence as much as during the Liardau era.
In my head I’m optimistic to seeing a 0.4p-0.5p by the end of the year if things keep on track.

Fag packet stuff – but we know form last quarterlies were are returning $12 profit per barrel which over the quarter generated $0.8m profit on 731 barrels or $3.2m full year.
Let’s say we hit 1000bpd by year end, and with oil another $10 avg higher than the $12 per barrel profit say instead $20 (realistic), then over a 12 month period that’s circa $7.3m profit.
There shouldn’t be any more write downs and let’s say Indonesia is neutral and the RIGS at this point in cost to profit.
Debt on $40m at 6% to Landocean = £2.4m per annum and the $20m convertible loan at 8% is $1.6m – total $4m. Serviceable. This is why the continued bopd improvement is key – serviceable with profit leaves this less of a worry for investing.

Current valuation on 7.5bn shares equates to £15m market cap.

In this situation I like to look at multiples of profit – so forward 10x of $3.3m profit gives $33m at X rate 1/1.35GBP v USD = £25m market cap taking us to a share price of 0.3p + with something for Indonesia and RIGS 0.35p-0.4p

By end of 2019 if they add 15% per quarter as they have been doing, could be more but could be less (waterflood should increase to make it more!) take us to 1750bopd Trinidad and in excess of 2000 with Indonesia.
If oil holds at $70 and we keep the $20 barrel profit then generate nearer $15m profit a year exc. RIGS. After debt loan of $4m its $11m profit. Multiple of 10 forward basis is $110m or 3 times current expectation for end of 2018 and this share price nearer 1p.

Could be much higher on a turnaround story and any additional stuff we may do – but I’m now invested on the basis there is a recovery story rather than my historic token amount.

My gamble is getting in too early as they need to keep showing the improvements. However I’m willing to now take that chance with 3 successive quarters of improvement and I find it hard not to be better again after the issues in storage in the last quarter.

People will get out on the way, but I see this as a laggard story on oil, and so with other oilers on the increase already this will pick up some of those profits to replace those who exit.

[Buckz]

That’s an extremely considered and objective summary Juicebox. Thanks for your thoughts.
As a number of LTH’s in here have said, regular newsflow is key. The fact that there have been just2 stand alone TT updates this year says a lot about the failure to understand AIM dynamics.
The prompt response to the sad events in Indonesia was laudable but where on earth - a month on - is the follow up. Even if it’s to say we’ve had to put our plans on hold?

[Momo]

Yes a good post Juicebox, that stands out as it's well though out and reasoned.
Many years ago that would be a common occurrence, but years of underperformance have jaded even the most articulate of posters.

Unlike years gone by sadly though, Range posters are no longer that influential, either on forums, private forums or via shareholder groups. It's up to Range to create the turnaround in sp. I hope your optimism is ultimately rewarded.

[Razzledazzle]

Abraham's must be delighted with their 1p buy in

[Loadsamoney]

Razz
Almost certain it was Abrahams that voted down the remuneration in Nov
How do you think they will vote this Nov if say the SP is still sub 0.5p ?

Exactly

Weird thing is the full year is likely to be published beginning Oct but the 4th quarterly is likely end of July & we will therefore know most of the major numbers....like bopd up 30% and receipts up 50% etc...

[Canaries60]

Great post Juicebox. Really appreciate your considered thoughts. If it pans out like that, i’ll be a happy boy.

My ‘only’ concern is that they are pushing the workovers etc at an unsustainable rate and they will cease to be effective before WF can take up the slack. I really feel, behind the corporate veil, that Range will consider WF to be an abject failure. I hope the new pump and increased injection rates from Petrotrin prove me wrong.

Good luck to all

Richard

[Juicebox]

The upcoming expected improvements in bopd and oil price are no doubt going to be extremely positive for Range come quarterlies and year end accounts. However, I think it has to be contextualised and although we should be showing xx% and £xx better than 12 months ago – I feel you have to really consider where the company was at that point in time. In my mind it was close to being on its way out. The owners probably did as good a job as possible in keeping the company ticking along and fortunately the increase in oil price gives the company hope. It’s still in a fairly precarious position because longer term oil futures sit well below current price (looking beyond the $80, $100 headlines).

If you consider that in the most recent quarterlies we are $12 per barrel in profit. 12 months ago then we know at the oil price we were seeing realistically $0 profit per barrel. Add to that we have $4m in loan repayments annually and we were hemorrhaging money…and the decent cash levels we had would eventually run dry. Had the owners tried to increase bopd and drill more or do more work overs it was wasted money as there was $0 profit to be made.

Now it’s the time for them to still be considerate but make the killer decisions. At today’s oil price we are $20+ profit based on last quarterlies figures and continued oil price increase – at 800 bopd which we must be near a present it produces annually $6m profit – less loans then circa $2m profit after everything. With money already in the bank, they could look to put a little more into increasing bopd production, spread this across other investments to diversify risk (Indonesia or RIGS).

The bopd targets were not cautious IMO, just realistic given the profit per barrel available – remember at $12 profit per barrel on 500/600/700 bopd we still don’t cover loan repayments. This could jump a little in the near future with the money available – and this may be why the plans continually change or they release less than we would like about future plans – because we are so oil price dependent at current production with the outstanding debt/loans…

I think there should be some credit in what the owners are currently doing in being prudent when they had to and diversifying. The next step is how they react to the fact we potentially have a bit (albeit small) amount of profit to play with. With a bit of oil price staying high luck then they could kick on somewhat more than the recent cautious growth.

Just an opinion but if oil can keep up near $70 – then I think the company has a chance of increasing value from current share price strongly – a genuine compelling case here now

[Wiggy]

Don't forget the oil price too.....we are in a way better position that a year ago. Lightyears away really in real terms. The sp will catch up at some point.

W