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Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

(ASX:RRS / AIM:RRL / PINK:RGRLF & RGRYY)
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Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Wed Mar 21, 2012 11:18 pm

Perhaps this thread would be a good place for members to put up Charts and Techs.
Hopefully it could also be a useful place to discuss the dark art too.

And for die hard fundamentalists, it would be a fantastic aid to a good nights sleep!

Admin any chance of making this tech thread sticky?

TF
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Trading Faces
 
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Wed Mar 21, 2012 11:26 pm

Todays chart 21/3/2012

http://screencast.com/t/y0Bj95fe
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Trading Faces
 
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Thu Mar 22, 2012 12:39 am

Just a couple of other points to add to TF analysis.

http://www.screencast.com/t/rhgmpzUcucds

The first leg up of the range rocket was from Dec low (6.5) to Jan high (13.75). Once we broke through this resistance last week prices bounced perfectly off the 38.2% fibonacci expansion of 16.5 on Monday and then perfectly back-tested the Jan high of 13.75 on Tuesday. Another thing to note is that after 6 days of even/up or even/down days the 7th can be very often a pivot point, this happened to be the case for RRL yesterday and after the Jan high.

Prices will most likely need to rest around these levels for a few days in order to build up enough momentum to break through resistance at 16.5. RSI and stochs were both overbought and will need to pause for breath. Stochs have rising support line as can be seen, not that i'd put too much emphasis on this. Still in uptrend as long as 12.75 (and rising) holds though i can't envisage 13.75 breaking unless we have bad news from Shabeel. When/if 16.5 breaks it should be fairly straight forward to 18.25-19.

ATB
Neil Byrne
 
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Thu Mar 22, 2012 8:37 am

Doggy and Neil - thanks guys... very helpful indeed.. :)
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Thu Mar 22, 2012 9:11 am

Yes, thanks guys, much appreciated analysis... I'd kind of lost where we were with the fibs, bit surprised it came back so quick with the RSI having edged over 70 ('dilution' RNS notwithstanding)... the fibs aspect makes an awful lot of sense. Hopefully we'll stick at the top end of the cuurent channel. Had wondered if we may have been getting into a steeper channel last week.
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Thu Mar 22, 2012 4:47 pm

Thanks Guys Interesting Stuff.

Oz
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Thu Mar 22, 2012 6:15 pm

quick visit to 13.8p tomorrow morning then up again imo

http://screencast.com/t/L9YixiJm
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Thu Mar 22, 2012 7:48 pm

Really appreciate Chart updates, helps me in the learning process. Any one willing to post charts for RMP and comments as well - Trading faces?
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Thu Mar 22, 2012 8:13 pm

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Trading Faces
 
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 8:20 am

Thank you.
Rueberue
 
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 8:35 am

Tf
Thanks for that, I'm wanting a top up so ill look in first thing tomorrow .
Nice site here.
Good luck
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 8:40 am

Cheers TF, always value your analysis.
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Roadking
 
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 9:08 am

TF - Another accurate call; well done. Took a top-up at 13.65.

Trading Faces wrote:
> quick visit to 13.8p tomorrow morning then up again imo
>
> http://screencast.com/t/L9YixiJm
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Biggles
 
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 9:14 am

Biggles
He stole that chart off of Cheap as Chips..
Only Joking TF nice call atm lets hope it holds..
TTT
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 9:51 am

RMP bottomed on the 50% fib retracement at 41.5p as per last nights chart.

RRL now sitting on lower trend line, having dipped below and tested holders conviction and supply after an opening gap down.

RMP already recovering now. RRL artificially held by blocking orders (what's new!)

I await 11am ish with interest, suspect the gap will be close today for a flat or even blue finish.

TF
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 9:53 am

cheers bro thanks. Very useful thread for us with not much charting knowledge.

Trading Faces wrote:
> RMP bottomed on the 50% fib retracement at 41.5p as per last nights chart.
>
> RRL now sitting on lower trend line, having dipped below and tested holders
> conviction and supply after an opening gap down.
>
> RMP already recovering now. RRL artificially held by blocking orders
> (what's new!)
>
> I await 11am ish with interest, suspect the gap will be close today for a
> flat or even blue finish.
>
> TF
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 10:05 am

Appreciate your insight TF.
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 12:03 pm

Head on block.

We have seen the low.

My previous chart was wrong as I ignored the 23rd Jan fake print.

Including it, one can see we have just bounced off it perfectly


http://screencast.com/t/6RFte9ZBQ7V
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 12:14 pm

TF

Looking very oversold now could we be seeing a reversal before close I wonder.

Chris.
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 12:16 pm

I got a nice guillotine choke ready for you if you're wrong! lol

Trading Faces wrote:
> Head on block.
>
> We have seen the low.
>
> My previous chart was wrong as I ignored the 23rd Jan fake print.
>
> Including it, one can see we have just bounced off it perfectly
>
>
> http://screencast.com/t/6RFte9ZBQ7V
taggles
 
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 12:20 pm

tags

no joke, on wednesday night within the space of 6 minute rolling I was guillotined, eziekeled, armbarred and triangled.

I think I have 80 pounds on the guy too!

back for more punishment tonight.
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 12:30 pm

you'll get them all from me if you if we ever break that chart support looool ill thrown in a twister too!

Trading Faces wrote:
> tags
>
> no joke, on wednesday night within the space of 6 minute rolling I was
> guillotined, eziekeled, armbarred and triangled.
>
> I think I have 80 pounds on the guy too!
>
> back for more punishment tonight.
taggles
 
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 12:31 pm

Doggy - lets close above 13.25p! and the up-trend should still be intact! :) can't see anything less than 13.25p IMHO.... Cheers
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 12:46 pm

this is depressing after the past few weeks!
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 12:49 pm

'The drill is targeting a few hundred million is it.

What if it the result is higher?

LIKE A LOT F***ING HIGHER?

JR

P.s. FOUR BILLION BARRELS, FOUR HUNDREDS METRES, BLAH, BLAH'

This was posted on iii but cant find JR's post on here or Google, did you say this JR if you listening.
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 12:56 pm

Yes he did on RUM.
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 1:06 pm

Is RUM still going? I wish JR would make his mind up. B
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 1:27 pm

Hello everyone,

Current SP action reminds me of XEL in late 2010 right before they reported on flowtest results. There was a sharp markdown over a few sessions before good rates were released to the market, which naturally drove the SP to all-time highs very rapidly. The impending (proper) US listing next week with accompanying PR campaign may also be a likely factor.

** It appears that the SP will close at 13.5p for EoW and may be sustained into Monday afternoon next week. **

Kind regards - hope everyone has a great weekend,

Whiskey :-)
Last edited by WhiskeyGez on Fri Mar 23, 2012 1:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 1:44 pm

Nice thought for a Friday afternoon Whiskey! Have a good one...
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 3:07 pm

cheers whiskey you sexy beast

WhiskeyGez wrote:
> Hello everyone,
>
> Current SP action reminds me of XEL in late 2010 right before they reported
> on flowtest results. There was a sharp markdown over a few sessions before
> good rates were released to the market, which naturally drove the SP to
> all-time highs very rapidly. The impending (proper) US listing next week
> with accompanying PR campaign may also be a likely factor.
>
> ** It appears that the SP will close at 13.5p for EoW and may be sustained
> into Monday afternoon next week. **
>
> Kind regards - hope everyone has a great weekend,
>
> Whiskey :-)
taggles
 
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 6:12 pm

TF, if you line the left hand end of your line bang on the lowest 6.5p low, pivoting it about the fake print, do you get 12.85p?
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 6:19 pm

Podcast, you certainly do

I rushed the chart above earlier.

But realigning that low and the fakeprint gives us the lower extramity of today's trading.

http://screencast.com/t/lTsxnU8h
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 6:37 pm

Cool, thought so! Have a good weekend.
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 7:21 pm

guillotine on its way!

Trading Faces wrote:
> Podcast, you certainly do
>
> I rushed the chart above earlier.
>
> But realigning that low and the fakeprint gives us the lower extramity of
> today's trading.
>
> http://screencast.com/t/lTsxnU8h
taggles
 
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 7:31 pm

Updated chart from Wednesday:

http://www.screencast.com/t/STWEKVVF

Back down to test channel line. RSI is back down on support line (although slightly breached - not a major concern yet). Red day Monday and i'd be worried, purely from a TA point of view..
Neil Byrne
 
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 7:56 pm

Thanks again chaps. I did wonder about that fake print when it appeared, and Solentview had a theory at the time about what had caused it. Nobody came out to say that it would likely to prove relevant and that seemed unlikely from a fundamental point of view barring a Shabeel-1 duster (so still holding breath a bit there I suppose) thus categorised in the 20% of fakes that don't play out. However, seeing that chart certainly gives it a role now, doesn't it? Funny that.
Given that lines may be drawn at slightly different angles etc., I presume we still have scope for an early shake on Monday morning to get to the placing price and close out that particular bit of chartist OCD without wrecking the piece. Better slap in the 13p buy order then.
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 8:01 pm

Thanks Neil, tf et al.

Am I picking this up right and this down pressure is actually good for the future sp, eg coiling down to allow the next leg up to be lOnger and higher? If I am talking bollox feel free to tell me.......

Red day on Monday and I am going into hiding, between the wife and the nice ig people please let it be blue ; o )

Cheers
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Fri Mar 23, 2012 8:20 pm

I've already got IG after me!

Yes down movements are good, things don't move in straight lines, steep up-trends aren't sustainable and inevitably lead to sharp corrections. As the price moves down to channel line line, tests it and bounces the more weight it adds to the strength of that trend line. We've moved down and tested the channel line, all we need now is the bounce.....
Neil Byrne
 
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Sun Mar 25, 2012 8:46 pm

Not knowing about chartting & Technical aspects behind it how does Monday look, Is it showing that the SP will be under pressure or a bounce off of the current level.

I have adjusted my margins to allow for a further fall but wondering at what kind of level I should be looking at.

TIA
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Sun Mar 25, 2012 9:12 pm

Not sure what people think here for Monday but we are below a trend line and 20ema. Stochastics and MACD still down so I would hope for any spike not to go below 50ema - does seem to make sense around the12.5p level. Thats where my last top up is then hopefully up and away! See what happens on ASX tonight. GL all.

BHSL
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Sun Mar 25, 2012 9:49 pm

Will be interesting to say the least, the December low, the 23rd Jan fake print & Fridays low of 12.85 form a clear line, so hopefully a bounce as Friday was overdone IMHO, or a monster stop loss raid pre-STRIKE! :-)
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:03 am

12p in Aus lets hope we do follow them
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Mon Mar 26, 2012 6:44 am

Looking to me like the chart rising trend has been broken, Hope that doesnt meen we are going down further.
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Mon Mar 26, 2012 7:21 am

Can anyone re-evaluate the chart or does a new long term trend have to be established if trend broke.
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Ozfund
 
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Mon Mar 26, 2012 7:24 am

Check out TF's last post...

http://screencast.com/t/lTsxnU8h
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Mon Mar 26, 2012 7:40 am

My previous post was incorrect, we're still in an uptrend as long as we hold above 12.25. Up-trends are defined as higher highs and higher lows. The last low was at 12.25 before bouncing to 16.50. Prices are sitting on the current channel line (breaking this doesn't necessarily mean we're not in an uptrend anymore but technically it wouldn't be healthy) and the RSI is also on its support line so ideally we'll finish the day level/up, though this doesn't seem likely after ASX performance.
Neil Byrne
 
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Mon Mar 26, 2012 7:48 am

Thanks for the explanation Neil
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Ozfund
 
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Mon Mar 26, 2012 8:22 am

No problem Oz.

12.25 seems to holding up pretty well so far on good opening volume - i'm actually a little buoyed by the opening action. A level finish doesn't seem out of the realms of possibility now, would bode very well if it managed to do so.

ATB
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Re: Technical Analysis - Charts and Stuff

Post Mon Mar 26, 2012 8:33 am

in the words of pl this morning "if you are still around as a shareholder you will see very shortly just how good the Colombian farm in is"


Neil Byrne wrote:
> No problem Oz.
>
> 12.25 seems to holding up pretty well so far on good opening volume - i'm
> actually a little buoyed by the opening action. A level finish doesn't seem
> out of the realms of possibility now, would bode very well if it managed to
> do so.
>
> ATB
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