recovery play - JLP

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londonz
Posts: 658
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2012 4:22 pm

recovery play - JLP

Post by londonz »

JLP 2p - 40p

JLP making a recovery from sub 2p to where it belongs, double digit valuation. see chart!

MINING LICENCE imminent and soon after JV for its platinum mine (one of the largest in the world) with NPV around 800m
londonz
Posts: 658
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2012 4:22 pm

Re: recovery play - JLP

Post by londonz »

interesting feedback from reputable investor Agogna1 in LSE yesterday. it seems there are 2 or maybe three large interested parties are accumulating. Also, it seems we should be double digit on tjate news (see feedback from colin re below with Agogna1), say 15p!!

http://www.lse.co.uk/member-info.asp?nick=Agogna1

"There was concern about a block buyer - they already had interest from 2 but the third was potentially hostile. What I took away from the brief chat that this was a man that was very aware that delivery to shareholders was key, he knew my direct questions before I asked them and he we very confident in answering them.
He also gave me his personal email and asked if you ever have any concerns emails m, you can't ask fairer than that."


"Just chatted to Colin Bird at XTR AGM - he is very bullish and he hinted at good things coming .....he would say that I hear you say..... I told him my average and he said you must be looking at 3/4 bagger lol. "

I think news is coming soon!!
londonz
Posts: 658
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2012 4:22 pm

Re: recovery play - JLP

Post by londonz »

copied:

it seems mining licence approval will unlock huge values to companies. equally, it attracts many traders.

It was AMC in early this year. Today its for SXX with their mining licence approval. Very soon, which already pass all stages and waiting for rubber stamp, is JLP (mcap 15m)
londonz
Posts: 658
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2012 4:22 pm

Re: recovery play - JLP

Post by londonz »

COPIED FROM LSE: conversation with directors

just thought I post something after my long discussion with one of directors re JLP earlier this week.

Tjate:
nobody knows when the mining right will be granted but based on JLP understanding, all requirement have been fulfiled and now waiting for SA authority to approve. it could come anytime.

Although the Tjate project is still far from production due to huge cost required to develop it, the significant of the mining right approval is that it will open up several options to JLP. JLP could then seriously enter into discussion with several potential acquirers who could in theory take a stake in the project (ie JV). They could be one from very deep pocket so that they can help develop Tjate project. For example, Mitsubishi and also chinese mining Sino xxxxxx (i cant remember exact name) already aware of JLP platinum projects. However, this discussion will only be possible once mining right is granted.

my own view: mining right approval will result in huge lifting in JLP share price as it will open up serious discussion with major player (Mitsubishi name was mention though not sure how serious, also the chinese name, maybe just a suggestion? fyi - Mitsubishi metal is huge japan based metal trading firm) not to mention any news on potential JV will drive share price even higher.

Tailing:
most shareholders are so focus on Tjate and forgetting the important of Tailing (ie surface) projects. we have 2 tailing projects at the moment, which can be company maker in itself. since its on the surface, the cost of processing is very low compare to actual mining from below the surface (deep underground). so, the cost is roughly $500 per ounce. even at low price of platinum at the moment is hugely profitable to JLP.

Directors abit disppointed that not many shareholders realised the significant of figures quoted in RNS (though i did say they should put clear calculation on how much potential profit ).

i can see someone already done rough calculation, which is close approx.
ie, 42000 per year for 10 years (he did confirm for 10 years) assuming average price of $1000 and cost $500, gives

42000 x (1000 - 500 ) = $21m profit per year
for 10 years = $210m profit. and this is based on $1000 metal price. should the price is much higher in the future, you can calculate yourself the potential profits to JLP !

the point he is trying to make is that tailing project itself is worth multiple of JLP current market capitalisation. And hopefully soon more shareholders will realise how undervalued JLP is just on tailing project alone.

anybody is free to contact JLP for verification.
long123
Posts: 23
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 9:16 am

Re: recovery play - JLP

Post by long123 »

it seems mining licence approval will unlock huge values to companies. equally, it attracts many traders.
londonz
Posts: 658
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2012 4:22 pm

Re: recovery play - JLP

Post by londonz »

excellent RNS - TODAY

with market cap just a bit more that our cash of around 11m, platinum assets are not being valued in JLP.

JLP has two main assets:
- tailing project worth 120m
- Tjate project worth 1.7billion

so, JLP is very very cheap at the moment
londonz
Posts: 658
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2012 4:22 pm

Re: recovery play - JLP

Post by londonz »

from Yoda in iii board:

Ok. Having read about the opinions or rumours of the mining licence potentially coming very soon I decided to do some digging around. Having been in and around Braemore Resources before Jubilee took over them, I have re-established coms with my informed contacts.

I have it on incredibly good authority that verbal confirmation was given the authorities to Jubilee that the mining licence has been accepted and is at its final hurdle, a signature. This will be completed very shortly, probably no more than 2-3 weeks.

Hence I suspect the timing of the sale for the Middelburg site.

The licence triggers the £5m Quartzhill sale, so JLP will be cash rich of over £10m and in a position to implement its surface tailings project. A 60:40 debt:existing cash ratio to fund the Project seem to be the figures being thrown about with no planned equity financing for this. A new processing plant (parts coming from off the shelf), along with the rights to use the smelter at Middelburg will allow a quick start up of Platinum production from both surface tailings sites.

Initial projected production figures have been released previously and this is still the target. Therefore in the 6 months or so we will see production underway. Revenue figures are huge in comparison to what JLP have reaped recently from non-Platinum operations. This along with the fact that with the licence we can now include Tjate's proven billion pound reserves into the company valuation should significantly rerate the company. Still only a few shares in existence really in comparison with peers. This is the final lows for holders, for those that held on through the years of pain, well done.
londonz
Posts: 658
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2012 4:22 pm

Re: recovery play - JLP

Post by londonz »

excellent summary from YODA on webcast earlier today

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/ ... d=11709376

Ok I took some notes as clearly some couldn't watch it, here is a summary of what was said:

MINING LICENCE
~all processes concluded and passed all stages of application
~application completed to right standard and passed by the DMR
~awaiting final coms from DMR
~significantly after 1/2 an hour Leon confirmed they last spoke to the DMR on Monday. (I did state here on Tuesday that things had been confirmed.)
~Leon said the DMR confirmed JLP had successfully passed all stages and they will be granting the licence.
~ in the final processes to issue. (I'm told this is the final admin side, i.e signatures.)

TJATE
~attracts "many interested parties" for partnerships
~previous NPV of $1.4B to $1.6B "is fair value"

SURFACE TAILINGS PROJECTS
~Earthworks, ground clearing, drilling and levelling has already commenced at both sites.
~JLP won these projects against tenders from 22 other companies.
~Feasibility studies, testing and the engineering designs are complete and have been independently validated.
~engineering firms appointed for projects and capital costs agreed
~finance arrangements have been agreed and being finalised, with shareholder confirmation in 4-6 weeks.
~The sale of Middelburg is enough to pay for the first plant alone, they will be fully funded for 2 separate processing plants at both tailings sites, no equity funding required.
~Processing plant construction starts in Oct, production in June 2016.
~Surface tailings production costs between $400 and $500 per Oz
~capital costs to construct first site $7m-$8m to produce 1,000 Oz per month
~profit will fund further surface tailings projects. We are talking to several other chromite producers in SA and in Southern Africa
~additional major benefit is that we are also have significant Chrome production from the surface tailings for partners not just the PGE's
~future projects aimed at processing our own materials, not others. (Presumably this means we are looking to purchase surface tailings outright).
~Hernic/Mitsubishi tailings project will take 3 additional months to construct as much bigger. It will be the largest surface tailings plant in the world
~staff estimated to be 55 when producing. Significantly lower overheads, no actual mining where project costs are 60%-65% of overheads. So low platinum prices not an issue.
~current low platinum price unsustainable for producers, so price expected to return above $1,250 in the coming year.
~projects life expectancy is over 10yrs and possible expansion in line with the expansion of the partner operations.
~flexibility to ramp up production within weeks to take advantage of future spikes in platinum price.

MIDDELBURG
~we retain access and power rights
~we have rights to co-develop all future power plant expansion, to use utilities at cost and to utilise our 5Mw smelter.

DIRECTOR RENUMERATION
~confirmation that deferred Director pay is being received in shares at a value of 5pence per share! (considerably under current market value I might add!)

AUSTRALIAN NICKEL PROJECTS
~in optimisation stage. Undergoing an Economic Engineering Study with flow sheets completed to reduce capital of the project.

FURTHER UPDATES
~pictures of the project advancing will be released
~quarterly updates/webcasts will continue, news dependent.

CONROAST
~all ConRoast developments above patent we retain rights to

Hope this helps chaps and chapesses. Good luck. I like the fact that Leon confirmed that directors are currently being paid some renumeration in shares at the value of 5p. Says it all as to where the value is headed. ;)
londonz
Posts: 658
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2012 4:22 pm

Re: recovery play - JLP

Post by londonz »

Aberdeenman
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/ ... d=11714214

This share reminds me (in some ways, more of that below) of when I was piling into Amur, pre license, in low single digits, when everyone was saying mad to be buying, they will never get a license, Russia, sanctions blah blah yawn.

Well, I travelled down to London last week to see a presentation by the CEO of Amur, and spent a few hours talking to him afterwards in the bar. I am more convinced now than ever that my decision was right, and obviously they were granted the license.

My point is, I was prepared to take a big risk on Amur, and it paid off, from its low to high in 12 months it made a gain of 1642%.

Now from my point above, it should be noted I was invested in Amur for a long time, but topped up massively when low, but following on from that:

I know a lot of peeps have felt a lot of pain in this share, but getting in or stocking up massively when the price is very low can give spectacular results, with 1600% gains millionaires are made.

The risk with Amur was (to a lot of people) greater than here, the company (JLP) have a clear path to profit, multiple low cost, high margin projects, and a huge prize, which although it needs a lot of capital will bring huge rewards for investors, as the company have clearly demonstrated they are ahead of the pack in terms of their ability and technology.

Dilution, yes this may not get back to the highs seen before due to dilution, but we know there will be very little of that from now on.

All in all, I cannot see any major risk, for my risk appetite, it would seem a no brainer. Even with the commodity pricing and macro economic events, yes this will affect the bottom line, but in no way viability. Add to the mix the extremely low cost to produce then I cannot see any bar to risking my capital.

Going back to Amur, one last thing, I have been invested for over 5 years, it was an eternity waiting for that bl**dy license, what do we have here? A clear signal that the next licnense will be here in weeks and several other projects already under construction.


As I said a no brainer, IMV.


I do not invest in many companies, my strategy is to pick companies with very very high potential returns and invest, waiting as long as required and topping up on weakness. I am not long, as in time, in JLP, having got in at a very very favourable price, with a substantial holding at an average of 2.2p


Due to my relative youth on this board I would not dream of making myself out as more knowledgeable than some of the LTH's, I understand the work involved, so I will leave the NPV calcs to them, but I am anticipating a return of 500% minimum from here as being conservative, and this year.

The fact that derampers have shown up also is a positive, lets hope they are articulate enough to try counter my arguments, but on Aim, when these guys show up it is usually for a reason, and it is not to benefit the ordinary PI who is long.


My position is to still keep adding at these prices FYI.


Aberdeenman
londonz
Posts: 658
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2012 4:22 pm

Re: recovery play - JLP

Post by londonz »

copied from lse

Tailing projects worth 12p
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////
cicsbt01

i checked your figures and looks correct.
for 36000 per year, roughly profit (ie revenue will be much higher of course) = £10m per year

for 42000 oz (per RNS today), profit will be 10/36*42 = £12m per year

obviously for 10 years production, profit will be £120m
or, on a PE of 8x = £12x8= £96m = 12p / share for the 2 tailings alone.

******* so, we are about to add the third tailing project (per webcast) and next year platinum price expected to be much higher than this year.

so, all in all, minimun valuation is 12p on the two tailings alone.

you can then add Tjate NPV 1.6bn on top of that

*******************************
from cicsbt01

I put this on the board earlier today before the RNS and the BB getting very active. Today's RNS said 42,000 oz, my calc is for 36,000 oz, so the bottom number can be increased by 15%. Of course this is just the tailings, not Tjate, Leinster or anything else.

First plant - $8m to construct, to produce 1000 oz/mth.

Cap costs, £'s per year for 10 years = £0.52m

cost/oz ($450 / 1.55) =£ 290.3 / oz

Operating costs = £3.48m

Added together then annual costs = £4m

£ / platinum ounce at $1000= £613/oz

Therefore Total revenue = £7.3m

PreTax profit = £3.35m

Second plant (Hernic) - 2000 oz/mth
Same calculation, comes out at £6.7m / year

Combined = £10m profit (this is a rosy scenario, but can be done)

On a PE of 8 = £80m = 10.5p / share for the tailings alone.

Add a few more projects and this will take off even more.
londonz
Posts: 658
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2012 4:22 pm

Re: recovery play - JLP

Post by londonz »

NPV for JLP could well be multiple of 1.6bn. THIS IS HUGE ! :::

Tjate actually consists of shallower section and deeper section.

the NPV quoted of $1.6bn is ONLY for the shallower portion. should we take into account potential platinum in the deeper portion, NPV will be much higher/multiple of that.

nevertheless, the shallower portion itself is huge, and is not very deep, its shallower than most of its peer - see JLP presentation below. relatively speaking, the cost for extraction of the shallowe section will be much cheaper than most existing mine which are much deeper

http://tinypic.com/r/oau9fl/8

note:
the NPV 1.6bn was calculated based on 47m tonnes sitting between 600m to 1,100m depth
warloros
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Re: recovery play - JLP

Post by warloros »

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