(PSPI)Public Service Properties Investments-Rumoured 27p bid

[Oil Brat]

Rumoured 27p bid
Sun 21:45
Watch for buying
Any surplus funds from asset disposals will be paid back to shareholders;
the Board has also concluded that it is appropriate for the Company to continue to test market appetite for all the Group's assets. Further announcements will be made as appropriate.
Pro forma net asset value post completion of the combination transaction of 60.3p per share and pro forma adjusted net asset value, excluding goodwill, deferred tax and loans receivable, of 65.1p per share

[Oil Brat]

Major Shareholders Increasing
Percentage holding
Elliott International, L.P. and/or its affiliates
48,613,359
46.14%
USIGH Limited
21,369,413
20.28%
DBH Global Holdings, Ltd
6,249,083
5.93%
Federale Assurance
4,726,667
4.49%

[Oil Brat]

The Evil Knievil Diaries » October 16th 2012 ]
Bid for,(PSPI) Public Service Properties Investments,I bet they will at 60p.
http://t1ps.com/shop/page-article/actio ... -130019835

[Oil Brat]

German sale almost complete by all accounts and we can expect a 5xbagger for starters

[Oil Brat]

this will open up and fly very quickly news before the agm looking for 50-60p minimum with the NAV now higher with German disposal sentiment.
Unseen and way off the radar

[Synchrouk]

Oil Brat,
so this is where your hiding sorry to hear about your spat with iii,anyway regards PSPI i have been doing some digging all week on my calculations 80p NAV is nearer the mark 28-30p for German business and the rest 50p+.
I put a 100k order in around 4pm yesterday they worked it and i got 43k in two tranches 25k/18k hopefully the rest will get filled before the pack arrives.GL

[Synchrouk]

cannot get order filled they now want 12p for 1k/£120 or 15p for 50k

[Synchrouk]

German Nursing Homes: yield 6.5-7.5%

By Oliver Suess
maart 21, 2012 8:30 AM EDT
The German unit of Swiss Life Holding AG (SLHN), Switzerland’s biggest life insurer, plans to buy more nursing homes in Germany to help boost investment returns.
“We started to buy nursing homes in 2004 and will continue to do so as we are very happy with this asset class,” Stephan Illsinger, chief investment officer of Swiss Life’s German unit, said in an interview in Munich. “As soon as there’s more clarity on capital requirements under Solvency II, I wouldn’t have a problem to double our commitments to this area.”
Swiss Life’s German unit has invested about 100 million euros ($133 million), or 10 percent of its property holdings, in 14 nursing homes in Germany and is focused on non-urban areas near bigger cities. Most of the properties are being managed by BeneVit Holding. The number of nursing homes in Germany has grown to 11,634 in 2009 from 8,859 in 1999, according to statistics by the Federal Ministry of Health.
“We expect returns of about 7 percent from our investments in nursing homes, which exceeds the average return from other conservative asset classes including higher-rated government bonds and residential and commercial real estate,” Illsinger said.
About 1,400 care facilities with a capacity of at least 100 beds in an investment volume of 12.5 billion euros need to be built in Germany through 2030 to meet growing demand from patients, according to research by real-estate broker CB Richard Ellis Group Inc.
The investment market for nursing homes in Germany had a volume of about 295 million euros in 2010, with most of it being made by specialized real-estate funds from companies including Axa Investment Managers Germany, RREEF Real Estate and Immac Holding, according to CBRE, which expects initial net yields of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent for such investments.
“The advantage of direct investments in nursing homes over investments via specialized funds is that we remain in control of the objects and the quality standards,” Illsinger said.
Swiss Life, led by Chief Executive Officer Bruno Pfister, said last month it expects market conditions to remain “challenging” after second-half profit declined by 30 percent. The Zurich-based company plans to make more savings after reducing annual costs by 404 million Swiss francs ($444 million) since 2009 and cutting 520 jobs in Switzerland.
Swiss Life’s German unit represents about 10 percent of the insurer’s annual premium income. Germany is the company’s third- biggest market after Switzerland and France. Operating profit in Germany adjusted for major one-time items and currency effects declined 36 percent to 58 million euros last year.
“Going forward, we could also imagine teaming up with other insurers in our investments in nursing homes, but we haven’t held talks on that yet,” Illsinger said.http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0 ... ABLE=PULSE



Nursing homes multiples between 11-13 annual rent, top homes yielding 6.5-7.5%

CBRE sees €12.5bn German nursing home investment gap

06 October 2011, 10:20 PM

Germany needs 1,400 additional nursing homes by 2030, corresponding to a €6.4bn investment, while a further €6.1bn is needed for refurbishment of existing homes especially in west Germany, according to realtor CBRE.
By 2030, 1.2m people will live in nursing homes, up 70% on 2009, with the greatest increases in Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Lower Saxony and North Rhine-Westphalia. “The rising demand, due to demographic change, massive population migration to economically strong regions and a decreasing willingness to stay mobile on the part of the elderly, poses a considerable challenge for the industry,” said CBRE Head of Research Germany Jan Linsin. Despite the overall trend, demand for places will fall in some regions due to migration and skills shortage.
Investment in nursing homes increased in 2010 to total volume of €295m, with most investors being closed or specialised funds. Assets run by creditworthy operators are seen as secure investments due to a stable cash flow. “Nursing home multiples are between 11 and 13 times annual rent,” said CBRE’s Hartwig von Garrel. “Crucial factors for a maximisation of the multiple are location (federal state and city), condition of the building, occupancy rate as well as the operator’s refinancing ability, management experience and reputation. Top assets currently realise 6.5%-7.5% net initial yield. Investment volumes for single assets usually range from €7m-€20m.”
Financing these assets in times of equity shortage due to Basel III can be a challenge as banks are currently concentrating on core business and regular customers. “We estimate that there are only half a dozen banks which are financing these products,” said Linsin. “Equity demand has risen and will seldom fall below 40% with margins reaching 200 bp. We see a trend towards equity-strong investors, some of which are financing solely with their own resources.” pie

http://www.pie-mag.com/articles/1907/cb ... tment-gap/

[unclefib]

smells like a spam tag between two iii old hats - sorry to say something smells, not the posting style of oil brat......bin them clean up this forum

[Synchrouk]

Public Service Properties Investments is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

18 October
The first half was steady despite recent care home industry turmoil. Although PSPI is
a property owner not a care home operator, its interests are closely linked to those of
its tenants, so t its capital investment programme is important (and, indeed,
reassuring) as it underpins both the assets’ operational performance and rental
sustainability. It also provides a very clear distinction vs Southern Cross and others,
whose portfolios fell behind market trends due to lack of capital for upgrades. We
see two potential catalysts for improved performance and re-rating this year. The
first, securing refinancing or extension of facilities maturing in 2012, and the second,
evidence of reduced pressure on operator margins. We discuss both in this note.
Finances: Conservatively geared portfolio
Mid-year net debt and gearing were above the year-end, but aggregate LTV below
50% is conservative for a stable portfolio, with long-term revenue visibility. It should
arguably be higher, to maximise RoE, but access to debt is currently affected by
lender uncertainty regarding the sector outlook. Discussions continue; PSPI has
secured new finance as required over the last few years and in August 2011 it
refinanced its US portfolio on satisfactory terms, which was no mean achievement,
considering the market backdrop. There is potential for sales from the non-core
portfolio (essentially non-UK assets, but principally Swiss or US) in the short term,
which may add to flexibility with respect to negotiations with new or existing lenders.
Valuation: Strategic review seeks to reduce NAV discount
Although the partnership between the group and its tenant European Care is far
better placed than its over-leveraged operator peers, PSPI’s shares continue to sit at
a steep discount to underlying NAV, weighed down by concerns over the care home
industry. This has prompted it to embark upon a review of strategic options to
improve the valuation, which will cover its portfolio and debt structure. The interim
dividend was held at 2.5p and we assume FY11 dividends in line with last year, an
11% yield, with a scrip alternative offered for the first time.
Review
Price
63.5p
Market Cap
£65m


Share price graph

Share details

Code
PSPI
Listing
AIM
Sector
Real Estate
Shares in issue
102.4m


Price

52 week
High
Low

87.0p
61.8p


Balance Sheet as at 30 June 2011
Debt/Equity (%)
114
Net borrowings (£m)
138


Business
PSPI owns a portfolio of care home
properties in the UK, Germany and
Switzerland. This provides a secure,
index-linked revenue base, which it
seeks to grow via acquisition and active
management of its assets.

Valuation

2010
2011e
2012e
P/E relative
50%
66%
68%
P/CF
4.5
4.9
4.2
EV/Sales
8.6
10.3
9.9
ROE
9%
9%
9%


Revenues by geography
UK
Europe
US
Other
69%
24%
7%
0%


Analyst
Roger Leboff
+44 (0)20 3077 5700
[email protected]



Public Service Properties Investments
Year
End
Revenue
(£m)
PBT*
(£m)
EPS*
(p)
DPS
(p)
Yield
(%)
EPRA
NAV/
share
(p)
Disc
to
NAV
(%)
12/09
20.6
9.0
10.6
6.5
10.2
148 (1)
57
12/10
21.9
8.1
12.0
7.0
11.0
150
58
12/11e
19.9
7.4
10.5
7.0
11.0
148
57
12/12e
20.9
7.9
11.6
7.5
11.8
154
59
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding goodwill amortisation and exceptional items;
1 EPRA NAV/share for 12/09 is adjusted for enlarged share capital/cash raised in April 2010.
Investment summary: Benefit of capex in H2




2 | Edison Investment Research | Review | Public Service Properties Investments | 18 October 2011

Investment summary: Benefit of capex emerging in H2
Company description: Care home property investment
PSPI is a specialist European care home property investment and financing company. It holds a
fully let £260m (including work in progress) portfolio of care home assets located in the UK (69% of
aggregate value), Germany (20%), Switzerland (5%), plus a £16m non-core portfolio of 140 US
Post Offices (6%) let to the United States Postal Service, an agency of the US government. The UK
care portfolio is fully let, exclusively to European Care Group, the UK’s sixth largest independent
provider on long-term leases (typically initial 35-year terms), with index-linked rents reviewed
annually and a weighted average unexpired lease length of 24 years.
Valuation: Strategic review to address 57% NAV discount
The group announced a strategic review with these interims, the intention of which is to address
the current, ongoing weakness in the value of its shares, in particular the material discount to
NAV/share. This will examine the group’s assets, debt structure and overall strategy, to explore
ways to maximise shareholder value. The shares have traded consistently below NAV/share over
the last few years, despite an attractive dividend yield. The review will be conducted jointly by the
Asset Manager and Smith Square Partners, an independent corporate finance advisory firm. The
£276.9m external valuation of the investment portfolio at the mid-year was equivalent to a basic
118.4p NAV/share (FY10: 119.9p) and 148.3p/share (FY10: 150.5p) adding back deferred tax less
goodwill. PSPI declared a 2.5p/share interim dividend, in line with H110, with a scrip alternative
available for the first time. We have assumed that it will hold the full year dividend at 7p/share,
which represents an 11% prospective yield.
Sensitivities: Debt maturities and care industry dynamics
We identify two main issues. 1) Current industry dynamics create potential margin tension between a
care home landlord and its tenant. Although PSPI’s UK revenues benefited from a 5.0% pa index
linked increase in rents in H1, its operator tenant, European Care, may not be able to pass this on
via client fee increases, particularly to public sector funded occupiers. Average industry occupancy
rates have also declined over the last few periods, as the public sector has attempted to reduce
costs by later stage referral of residents. European Care has additionally been affected by the
programme of refurbishment and extension to a number of its assets, which in some cases has
required property closures. Occupancy should progressively recover as homes reopen. 2) The
group’s efforts to refinance existing – and secure new debt where it is under leveraged – have been
hampered as negative industry publicity has affected lender appetite. It reports that it is in discussion
with existing and potential new lenders. PSPI has been able to secure new facilities as required over
the last few years. Its largest facility (£83m from the Bank of Scotland) matures in September 2012.
Financials: Rents ahead, debt conservative at below 50% LTV
Cash rents increased by 2.2% y-o-y to £8.5m. PSPI repaid £8.6m of debt in H1 and allocated
£3.6m to capex on its existing care home portfolio. That left it at 50% aggregate portfolio loan-to-
value at the interim stage and compliant with all banking covenants. Post the period end it secured
a $19.8m 10-year refinancing and a $4.5m bridge loan for its US property portfolio.


3 | Edison Investment Research | Review | Public Service Properties Investments | 18 October 2011

Interim results: Steady earnings and asset performance
Adjusted interim pre-tax earnings at £5m (4.9p/share) compared with £3.5m last year (4.2p/share);
the 15% increase in EPS was achieved despite a 25% increase in the weighted average number of
shares in issue, post the H110 share issue. Exhibit 1 sets out adjustments to headline profit, ie fair
value movements in investment property values and associated deferred tax, which provides a
more transparent view of the underlying performance during the first half.
Exhibit 1: Adjusted interim earnings per share
£000s
Six
months to
30 June
2010
Six
months to
30 June
2010
Six
months to
30 June
2011
Six
months to
30 June
2011
12 months
to 31 Dec
2010
12 months
to 31 Dec
2010
Net profit attributable to shareholders
(3,581)
1,516
596
Fair value (gain)/loss on investment properties
4,831
3,629
(7,910)
Write off of accrued income
-
-
17,425
Deferred taxation on fair value gains
(886)
(841)
3,447
Amortisation of debt issue costs
196
194
439
Interest rate swap charge to income statement
1,531
(95)
945
Accrued income
(1,227)
-
(2,571)
Deferred taxation on accrued income
344
-
720
Write back of deferred taxation on accrued income
-
-
(4,880)
Recognition of deferred taxation asset
-
634
(2,208)
Impairment provision of receivable
-
91
867
Foreign exchange gains/(losses)
837
177
(47)
Current taxation
1,423
(299)
1,132
Adusted earnings
3,468
5,006
7,955
Adusted earnings
3,468
5,006
7,955
Weighted average number of ordinary shares outstanding (m)
81.97
102.44
92.29
Adjusted earnings per share (p)
4.23
4.89
8.62
Adjusted earnings per share (p)
4.23
4.89
8.62
Source: PSPI interim results
The above earnings calculation also adjusts for non-repeat of an accrued income from H111
onwards, in line with the cancelation of minimum rental guarantees on all UK portfolio leases.
Previously, the group was required to recognise guaranteed future income over the period of
leases, a majority of which in the UK run for an initial period of 35 years. From the end of FY10
each UK lease was amended to annual increases in line with the UK Retail Price Index, subject to a
maximum of 5% of the prior year’s rent, potentially supplemented by a five-yearly upward only
market rent review cycle.
In Germany, the majority of PSPI assets are let for an initial 20-25 year period and the lessee has
the right to a further five-year renewal subject to agreement of a revised rent. Existing rents are
adjusted at least every three or four years, with reference to a proportion (60-70%) of the change to
German CPI. The group’s single property in Switzerland is leased for a 20-year term, which runs to
June 2023. Rents are adjusted each year, in line with the Swiss CPI.
The US assets are let to the US Postal Service at a fixed annual rent, under a master lease that
runs to February 2022. The USPS has the right to unilaterally relinquish use of up to 25 of the 140
post office properties, limited to a maximum US$0.3m or 13% reduction in annual rent payable.
The USPS recently announced that 3,700 post offices are being considered for closure at some
point in the future. This includes 16 of PSPI’s properties, although no formal notice of a move to
cancel has been received. That represents, potentially, 5% of the income from the group’s US
assets, 0.4% of aggregate income.


4 | Edison Investment Research | Review | Public Service Properties Investments | 18 October 2011

Portfolio performance
Portfolio performance was solid during the first half, with the exception of Switzerland, as noted
below. Growth reflected additional capex on the UK portfolio, offset by fair value adjustments. All
assets were fully let at the mid-year, on long-term leases up to 25 years with indexed rents. The
additions to portfolio values during the period relate to capitalisation of capex for extension and
improvements to a number of UK properties.
Exhibit 2: Investment property
£000s
30 June
2010
30 June
2010
30 June
2011
30 June
2011
31 Dec
2010
31 Dec
2010
Beginning of the period/year
256,911
272,224
256,911
Additions resulting from subsequent expenditure
1,839
5,100
7,365
Net gain/(loss) on fair value adjustment
(4,831)
(3,629)
7,910
Net changes in fair value adjustments due to forex
(4,124)
3,159
37
As at period end
249,795
276,854
272,224
As at period end
249,795
276,854
272,224
Source: PSPI interim results
External appraisals were carried out at end June 2011. For the UK assets, Colliers CRE determined
that investment yields between 5.75% and 10% were applicable (H110: 6-10%), ie a 7.03%
aggregate average portfolio cap rate, vs 6.81% at end FY10, and 6.6% a year earlier.
Yields moved out in line with a weaker operating backdrop for care home tenants/operators and to
some extent, disruption caused by the portfolio investment programme, which should reverse in
due course. In Germany, Colliers CRE applied a 6.70% portfolio average, unchanged y-o-y.
Exhibit 3: Valuation analysis at 30 June 2011
Net
Rental
Income
(£m)
Net
Rental
Income
(£m)
Running
Yield
Running
Yield
Subtotal
(£m)
Subtotal
(£m)
Capex in
progress
& land
(£m)
Capex in
progress
& land
(£m)
Total
(£m)
Total
(£m)
Adj.
NAV/
share
(p)
Adj.
NAV/
share
(p)
UK
12.7
7.0%
181.6
9.6
191.2
Germany
3.6
6.7%
53.7
0.7
54.4
Switzerland
0.8
5.3%
15.0
15.0
US
1.3
8.0%
16.3
16.3
18.4
266.6
276.9
18.4
266.6
276.9
Other non-current assets
17.2
Cash
3.9
Other net current assets
2.7
Total debt (£33.3m short term/£112.4m long term)
(141.7)
Deferred tax - FV gain & business combinations)
(33.1)
Derivative financial instruments
(4.6)
Net assets
121.3
118.4p
Def. tax on FV gains & business combinations, less
goodwill
30.6
Adjusted net assets
151.9
148.3p
Source: PSPI interim results
The Swiss property was appraised by Botta Management AG via a DCF of future cash flows at a
4.5% discount rate, in line with the last two periods. The valuer took the view that despite the
asset’s strong location, the operator was unlikely to maintain steady occupancy due to high fee
rates. In addition, the property requires investment that may not generate an acceptable project
return on capital. As a result, the residual cash flow analysis reflected a 30% reduction in rent
(FY10: 10%) upon termination of the lease, which resulted in a 16% decline in the asset value. In
the US, Real Estate Asset Counselling Inc. referred to recent transactions in the sector, resulting in
a 7.88% capitalisation rate, vs 7.45% and 7.58% for the last two reporting periods.


5 | Edison Investment Research | Review | Public Service Properties Investments | 18 October 2011

Financials: 5% increase in RPI-linked UK rents
Rent reviews in H1 produced a 5% increase for around two-thirds of the UK portfolio, broadly in
line with UK RPI and the maximum allowed by UK leases. These are still subject to potential further
upwards adjustment at future five-yearly open market reviews.
Underlying H111 cash revenues were 2.2% ahead y-o-y at £8.5m due to higher UK rents and the
forex impact on non-sterling denominated rental revenues. Headline revenues were below the
£9.6m reported in H110, but the latter included £1.2m of non-cash accrued income, related to
recognition of revenues under guaranteed minimum annual UK rent increases, cancelled effective
from end FY10. Cash finance costs were £3.4m in H1, vs £4.2m last year. That reflects debt
repayments at end FY10 and H111, plus refinance/new debt at lower rates.
Modestly geared, but bank appetite affected by industry newsflow
Lenders remain cautious regarding sector exposure post the well-publicised operational problems
which led to the collapse of Southern Cross earlier this year, at the time the largest UK care home
operator. The group currently maintains conservative levels of gearing and at the mid-year was fully
compliant with all debt service and loan to value covenants. A majority of outstanding debt is at
fixed rates and refinancing is sought as facilities approach maturity. The major UK facility ie £83m
currently provided by Bank of Scotland matures in September 2012. There is clearly some risk that
PSPI will not be able to extend this maturity, or only be able to obtain replacement on less
attractive terms and potentially, incur swap breakage costs related to the BoS facility.
Exhibit 4: Debt portfolio and maturity
Currency
Maturity
Currency
Maturity
£
70
26
Sep 2012 - Feb 2014
US$
14
0
Refinanced in Aug 2011 - US$19.8m facility (Aug 2021) and US$4.5m bridge loan (Dec 2011)
CHF
9
0
2011/2012
€
23
0
2013, 2014 and 2019
Total
116
26
Total
116
26
Floating
rate
£m
Floating
rate
£m
Fixed
rate
£m
Fixed
rate
£m

Source: PSPI interim results presentation, adjusting the US debt to fixed term from August 2011.
PSPI repaid £8.6m of debt in H1 and refinanced another £5.5m. Post the mid-year it refinanced its
US assets via a $25.3m senior guaranteed debt facility. This comprises a new $19m senior debt
facility – 80% loan-to-value and 10-year term – at an initial 4.875% pa rising by 0.75% pa every two
years, amortising over 30 years with no early repayment penalties. The debt includes provision of
$1.0m as a debt service reserve with the new senior lender. This debt is non-recourse to PSPI (in
contrast to the facility it replaced) and thus provides flexibility regarding its longer-term strategy for
these assets. It also agreed a $4.5m bridging loan from Manchester Securities Corp, an affiliate of
45.7% shareholder Elliott Associates, L.P. This facility, which carries a 6% pa coupon, is repayable
at the end of 2011 from the proceeds of other financings currently being finalised.
The board is evaluating the progressive dividend/overall shareholder distribution policy as part of
the strategic review. It introduced a scrip dividend alternative with effect from this interim dividend,
subject to shareholder approval. That may be attractive to investors at current share prices and
significant take-up will provide additional cashflow savings vs a c £7.7m projected FY11 dividend
cost on current share capital. The interim dividend was held at 2.5p per share.


6 | Edison Investment Research | Review | Public Service Properties Investments | 18 October 2011

Valuation: NAV discount prompts strategic review
The current valuation represents a heavy discount to underlying NAV and a conspicuous, c 11%
historic and prospective dividend yield. This has prompted PSPI to instigate a review of its assets
over the short to medium term and explore ways to maximise value for shareholders. This may
include asset disposals, probably from non-core portfolios, ie broadly all non-UK property.
Group net assets fell from £122.9m to £121.3m in the six months to end June, which principally
reflected profit, less the £4.6m cost of the FY10 final dividend, paid in May, offset by a £1.6m
movement in fair value hedging and translation reserves. Mid-year NAV/share was 118.4p, or
148.3p adjusted for goodwill and deferred tax on fair value gains and business combinations.
We believe the current rating takes too pessimistic a view on the prospects for the care home
industry and draws unjustified parallels with over-leveraged operators and landlords. PSPI’s total
long- and short-term debt at end June 2011 was £25.8m and £115.9m respectively, vs £33.3m
and £112.4m at end FY10. That reflected £8.6m of debt repayments, offset by £2.5m of further
senior debt secured against some of the UK properties. Mid-year LTV was 49.6% (FY10: 53%), ie
net debt, measured against non-current assets, excluding goodwill, deferred tax assets, loans and
receivables. That is arguably too conservative relative to underlying cash flow visibility, but not
unhelpful ahead of significant debt refinancing for loans maturing in September 2012. The mid-year
weighted average unexpired lease term was c 20 years.
The ongoing c £20m capital expenditure programme should benefit both the operational stability of
individual assets, rental income and valuations. It was extended to a Berlin asset in H1, where the
current tenant agreed to extend its lease for a new 25-year term upon completion of the project in
Q112. Overall, PSPI spent £3.6m on its existing portfolio in the first half in the UK and Germany.
Sensitivities: Care home operators under pressure
We have referred to forthcoming debt maturities above. The second key source of sensitivity for
forecasts is the ability of the UK care home industry to adjust to short-term challenges. Operators
must adapt fast to cope with pressure on cash flows due to public sector spending cuts.
In July 2011, the Dilnot Commission made a number of recommendations regarding appropriate
funding for long-term care in the UK. The core proposal was that the government should establish
a cap on an individual’s contribution to the cost, to encourage better planning and indeed “create a
new space for the financial services sector to help people in meeting their contribution”. As yet, it is
not certain which of its recommendations will be adopted.
Colliers CRE’s ‘Spring 2011 Care Homes Review’ reported average occupancy for both nursing
homes and care homes across Great Britain, at c 91% during the second half of 2010. That figure
has been relatively stable since the beginning of 2009, but is still the low point for a data series that
began in H203. The average level of occupancy across different sizes of care homes remains
stable and in line with overall occupancy rates recorded for both nursing and care homes (91%),
and occupancy rates were slightly higher (92%) for both nursing homes and care homes with 61+
beds. Colliers reported that average nominal weekly fees have increased steadily over the last two


7 | Edison Investment Research | Review | Public Service Properties Investments | 18 October 2011

years, but fee growth in real terms weakened significantly in 2010. In H210 nursing home nominal
fees grew 1%, but fell 3% in real terms, care homes fees were up 6%, just 2% real growth.
Exhibit 5: Occupancy rates
90.0%
90.2%
90.4%
90.6%
90.8%
91.0%
91.2%
91.4%
91.6%
91.8%
92.0%
2008 H1
2008 H2
2009 H1
2009 H2
2010 H1
2010 H2
Nursing
Care Homes

Source: Colliers Spring 2011 Care Homes Review
Public sector cuts may shift emphasis to most efficient providers
More positively, Colliers refers to benefits for private sector operators of highest quality care homes.
It does not expect inflation beating fee growth for operators caring for local authority funded
residents in 2011 or 2012, but does expect to see the withdrawal of in-house services currently
operated by local authorities across the UK. These number approximately 920 homes (elderly
and/or dementia) with circa 30,600 beds (Laing & Buisson figures) and put private operators at a
disadvantage, as beds in local authority homes are filled first, despite the relatively poor quality of
many of these homes, a source of concern for the private sector for some time.
The necessity to cut expenditure is now outweighing political considerations and after a “trickle of
closure announcements during 2010”, Colliers reports a sharp increase since the turn of the year.
Its report referred to 153 homes across 29 local authorities, earmarked for closure, ie 16.6% of all
LA homes. In all cases the intention is to transfer residents to alternative privately operated facilities
and those homes with the best facilities are well placed to benefit from these closures.
European Care: Working with PSPI to offset industry pressures
Investment in PSPI is predicated upon the quality of its UK tenant, European Care, the UK’s sixth
largest independent provider of health and social care. It provides care for c 4,200 service users,
including elderly, children and adults with special needs. Around 83% of group beds are elderly
care – 65% of revenue. The balance, specialist care, is expected to grow to 40% by end 2012.
EC is distinct from troubled industry peers as it owns two-thirds of its care facilities, ie those not
leased from PSPI, which helps protect it against rent rises. Its parent company raised additional
capital in H1, some of which was used to increase working capital in the operating entity. PSPI and
EC are implementing improvements to facilities to improve operating and financial performance.
EC reported a 3% decline in core occupancy to 85% over the last financial year, due to portfolio
refurbishments and decisions by public sector clients to refer residents later than previously. PSPI’s
capex targets provision of facilities for higher-care needs (ie increased emphasis on specialist care
for conditions where clients have less discretion, including dementia and several mental disorders).


8 | Edison Investment Research | Review | Public Service Properties Investments | 18 October 2011

Exhibit 6: Financial model
£'000s
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011e
2012e
£'000s
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011e
2012e
Year end 31 December
IFRS
IFRS
IFRS
IFRS
IFRS
IFRS
PROFIT & LOSS
Revenue
12,558
19,332
20,605
21,927
19,8 50
20,8 50
IFRS
IFRS
IFRS
IFRS
IFRS
IFRS
PROFIT & LOSS
Revenue
12,558
19,332
20,605
21,927
19,8 50
20,8 50
Cost of Sales
0
0
0
0
0
0
Gross Profit
12,558
19,332
20,605
21,927
19,850
20,850
EBITDA
9,396
15,317
16,550
17,574
14,076
15,150
Operating Profit (before GW and except.)
9,396
15,317
16,550
17,574
14,076
15,150
EBITDA
9,396
15,317
16,550
17,574
14,076
15,150
Operating Profit (before GW and except.)
9,396
15,317
16,550
17,574
14,076
15,150
Intangible Amortisation
310
(531)
0
0
0
0
Net gain from fair value adjustments on investment properties
8,651
(1,254)
(2,218)
7,910
(-5,000)
0
Operating Profit
18 ,357
13,533
14,332
25,48 5
9,076
15,150
Operating Profit
18 ,357
13,533
14,332
25,48 5
9,076
15,150
FV adjustments & MTM interest rate swaps
(3,617)
(3,791)
1,083
(945)
100
0
Forex/credit enhancement ins premiums
0
(2,247)
(256)
(2,028)
200
0
Net Interest
(2,879)
(7,868)
(7,309)
(7,459)
(7,000)
(7,250)
Profit Before Tax (norm)
2,900
5,202
8 ,98 4
8 ,08 8
7,376
7,900
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)
11,8 61
(373)
7,8 49
(2,372)
2,376
7,900
Profit Before Tax (norm)
2,900
5,202
8 ,98 4
8 ,08 8
7,376
7,900
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)
11,8 61
(373)
7,8 49
(2,372)
2,376
7,900
Current tax
(6,296)
(1)
(1,131)
47
0
0
Deferred tax
7,775
(1,940)
779
(2,921)
(3,500)
(4,000)
Profit After Tax (norm)
221
5,202
7,074
11,056
10,776
11,900
Profit After Tax (FRS 3)
5,565
(374)
5,939
596
5,8 76
11,900
Profit After Tax (norm)
221
5,202
7,074
11,056
10,776
11,900
Profit After Tax (FRS 3)
5,565
(374)
5,939
596
5,8 76
11,900
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)
66.8
66.8
66.8
92.3
102.4
102.4
EPS - normalised (p)
6.6
7.1
10.6
12.0
10.5
11.6
EPS - FRS 3 (p)
8.3
(0.6)
8.9
0.6
5.7
11.6
Dividend per share (p)
2.0
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.0
7.5
Gross Margin (%)
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
EBITDA Margin (%)
74.8
79.2
80.3
80.1
70.9
72.7
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)
74.8
79.2
80.3
80.1
70.9
72.7
BALANCE SHEET
Fixed Assets
222,365
28 6,249
28 7,131
290,025
297,000
304,000
BALANCE SHEET
Fixed Assets
222,365
28 6,249
28 7,131
290,025
297,000
304,000
Intangible Assets
0
0
0
0
0
0
Tangible Assets
197,057
258,450
256,911
272,224
280,000
287,000
Investments
25,307
27,799
30,220
17,801
17,000
17,000
Current Assets
33,317
16,216
7,272
18 ,8 35
7,000
6,500
Current Assets
33,317
16,216
7,272
18 ,8 35
7,000
6,500
Stocks
0
0
0
0
0
0
Debtors
6,305
9,464
5,363
3,461
5,000
5,000
Cash
26,686
6,753
1,909
14,745
2,000
1,500
Current Liabilities
(6,111)
(17,925)
(22,98 8 )
(34,460)
(98 ,000)
(35,500)
Current Liabilities
(6,111)
(17,925)
(22,98 8 )
(34,460)
(98 ,000)
(35,500)
Creditors
(3,878)
(2,008)
(4,024)
(1,174)
(3,000)
(3,500)
Short term borrowings
(2,233)
(15,917)
(18,964)
(33,286)
(95,000)
(32,000)
Long Term Liabilities
(145,153)
(18 0,908 )
(168 ,105)
(151,535)
(8 4,000)
(140,000)
Long Term Liabilities
(145,153)
(18 0,908 )
(168 ,105)
(151,535)
(8 4,000)
(140,000)
Long term borrowings
(112,308)
(141,385)
(129,562)
(112,352)
(47,000)
(110,000)
Other long term liabilities
(32,845)
(39,523)
(38,543)
(39,184)
(37,000)
(30,000)
Net Assets
104,417
103,632
103,310
122,8 64
122,000
135,000
CASH FLOW
Operating Cash Flow
7,668
10,545
14,450
12,902
13,364
15,650
Net Assets
104,417
103,632
103,310
122,8 64
122,000
135,000
CASH FLOW
Operating Cash Flow
7,668
10,545
14,450
12,902
13,364
15,650
Net Interest
(4,423)
(6,909)
(6,878)
(7,360)
(7,000)
(7,250)
Tax
0
(189)
(289)
(1,938)
(1,200)
(1,400)
Capex
0
(2,881)
(4,354)
(4,541)
(7,100)
(3,800)
Acquisitions/disposals
(28,414)
(40,145)
(160)
0
0
0
Financing
34,156
0
0
21,555
0
4,000
Dividends
(1,336)
(4,009)
(4,009)
(5,567)
(7,171)
(7,683)
Net Cash Flow
7,650
(43,587)
(1,240)
15,049
(9,107)
(483)
Opening net debt/(cash)
94,430
8 7,8 55
150,549
146,618
130,8 93
140,000
Opening net debt/(cash)
94,430
8 7,8 55
150,549
146,618
130,8 93
140,000
HP finance leases initiated
0
0
0
0
0
0
Other
(1,075)
(19,107)
5,171
676
(0)
(17)
Closing net debt/(cash)
8 7,8 55
150,549
146,618
130,8 93
140,000
140,500
Closing net debt/(cash)
8 7,8 55
150,549
146,618
130,8 93
140,000
140,500
Source: Edison Investment Research, PSPI accounts

Edison Investment Research

Lincoln House, 296-302 High Holborn, London, WC1V 7JH  tel: +44 (0)20 3077 5700  fax: +44 (0)20 3077 5750  www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk
Registered in England, number 4794244. Edison Investment Research is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

EDISON INVESTMENT RESEARCH LIMITED
Edison Investment Research is a leading international investment research company. It has won industry recognition, with awards both in the UK and internationally. The team of
more than 75 includes over 40 analysts supported by a department of supervisory analysts, editors and assistants. Edison writes on more than 350 companies across every sector
and works directly with corporates, fund managers, investment banks, brokers and other advisers. Edison’s research is read by institutional investors, alternative funds and wealth
managers in more than 100 countries. Edison, founded in 2003, has offices in London and Sydney and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority
(www.fsa.gov.uk/register/firmBasicDetails.do?sid=181584).
DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2011 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Public Service Properties Investments and prepared and issued by
Edison Investment Research Limited for publication in the United Kingdom. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that
are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of
Edison Investment Research Limited at the time of publication. The research in this document is intended for professional advisers in the United Kingdom for use in their roles as
advisers. It is not intended for retail investors. This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite securities or units. This document is provided for
information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment. A marketing communication under FSA Rules, this document has not been prepared
in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination
of investment research. Edison Investment Research Limited has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Investment Research Limited is authorised and regulated by
the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business. The company does not hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, its directors,
officers, employees and contractors may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison Investment Research Limited or its affiliates may perform
services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and
sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not
necessarily a guide to future performance. This communication is intended for professional clients as defined in the FSA’s Conduct of Business rules (COBs 3.5).

[Synchrouk]

news close and mms know it no online quote 3 days running phone only sell as much as you want

[Synchrouk]

Net asset value per share of 73.4p Today 12:1528 September 2012
Public Service Properties Investments Limited
("PSPI", "the Group" or "the Company")

Unaudited Interim Results for the six months ended 30 June 2012

PSPI (AIM: PSPI), the specialist European care home real estate investment and financing company, announces unaudited results for the six months ended 30 June 2012.

Highlights:
●
Total rental income increased by 3.2% to £8.8 million (2011: £8.5 million)
●
Investment properties valued at £217.1 million (31 December 2011 - £256.4 million)
●
Net asset value per share of 73.4p at 30 June 2012 (31 December 2011 - 108.3p)
●
Combination of majority of UK portfolio with assets and business of the Esquire Group, parent company of the Company's tenant in the UK, completed on 25 July 2012 following shareholder approval
●
Pro forma net asset value post completion of the combination transaction of 60.3p per share and pro forma adjusted net asset value, excluding goodwill, deferred tax and loans receivable, of 65.1p per share
●
The Company repaid £1.7 million in debt during the first six months and invested £2.2 million in capital expenditure

[Synchrouk]

massive upside just beginning in the run upto the agm,German sale should come first a 5xbagger imho.

[Synchrouk]

Current mkt cap is ludicrous no wonder institutions/directors have increased thier holding 95% only 5% in freefloat an £12m mkt cap with these valuations.



UK combination companies
UK retained assets


Germany


Switzerland

United States


Total

£ million
£ million
£ million
£ million
£ million
£ million
Investment property at 31 December 2011*
129.1
51.2
49.6
10.9
15.6
256.4
Fair value movement
(31.5)
(3.5)
(3.5)
(1.1)
(0.6)
(40.2)
Fair value exchange rate
-
-
(1.9)
(0.3)
(0.1)
(2.3)
Capital expenditure
2.3
-
0.3
-
-
2.6
Capitalised interest/rent
0.5
-
-
-
-
0.5
Investment Property at 30 June 2012
100.4
47.7
44.5
9.5
14.9
217.0

[Synchrouk]

IchimokuTrader
18-Oct-12
0.12 Bull Kijun Sen Cross
http://www.ichimokutrader.com/

[HOA]

spikey taking to himself lol.
Darren Purgel, aka precogz, you are a massive spamming twat.

[proservepoint]

I agree, thanks.

http://freebingonodeposit.co/

[warloros]

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